Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast
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Warragul (South)

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Warragul (South) indicate a 1.5% increase in population under working age, a 28.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Baw Baw Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Warragul (South) - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42084.52464.94275.6+219
5 to 92836.12675.34786.2+195
10 to 142896.22795.54786.2+189
15 to 193487.53005.94395.7+91
20 to 242455.32434.83825.0+137
25 to 291934.22184.33784.9+185
30 to 342024.32514.94385.7+237
35 to 392054.42685.34465.8+240
40 to 442395.12625.24295.6+191
45 to 493477.52675.34305.6+83
50 to 543136.82905.74235.5+110
55 to 592886.23266.43985.2+111
60 to 642796.03176.34095.3+130
65 to 693267.03356.64415.7+115
70 to 743206.93426.74866.3+167
75 to 792124.63146.24065.3+194
80 to 841513.32565.13394.4+188
85 and over1904.12885.74555.9+265
Total persons4,638100.05,069100.07,685100.0+3,047

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 455 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 339 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 406 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 486 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 441 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 409 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 398 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 423 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 430 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 429 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 446 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 438 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 378 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 382 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 439 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 478 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 478 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 427 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 288 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 256 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 314 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 342 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 335 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 317 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 326 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 290 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 267 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 262 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 268 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 251 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 218 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 243 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 300 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 279 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 267 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 246 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 190 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 151 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 212 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 320 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 326 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 279 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 288 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 313 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 347 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 239 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 205 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 202 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 193 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 245 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 348 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 289 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 283 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 208
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 167 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 83 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 92 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 145 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 105 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 92 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 73 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 133 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 163 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 167 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 178 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 188 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 161 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 139 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 140 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 199 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 211 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 180 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 98 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 105 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 102 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 22 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 9 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 38 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 38 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -23 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -80 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 24 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 62 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 49 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 24 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: -2 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: -48 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -10 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: -15 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 39
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Warragul (South) was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 7.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 80 to 84, which is expected to increase by 105 and account for 5.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 70 to 74 years, with a total of 342 persons.

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