Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast
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Trafalgar South - Yarragon South and District

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Trafalgar South - Yarragon South and District indicate a 7.3% increase in population under working age, a 22.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 5.9% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Baw Baw Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Trafalgar South - Yarragon South and District - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42295.82315.82455.8+16
5 to 92496.32626.52786.6+28
10 to 142315.92686.72826.7+51
15 to 192666.72406.02576.1-9
20 to 241834.61734.31924.6+9
25 to 291794.51654.11724.1-7
30 to 341684.31794.51914.5+22
35 to 392095.32195.52255.4+16
40 to 442295.82406.02606.2+31
45 to 492957.52736.82906.9-6
50 to 543448.72776.93007.1-43
55 to 593188.12947.32937.0-25
60 to 643418.63228.02987.1-43
65 to 692867.32957.42826.7-4
70 to 741904.82616.52475.9+57
75 to 791132.91614.01804.3+67
80 to 84481.2832.11162.8+68
85 and over671.7651.6982.3+31
Total persons3,945100.04,008100.04,206100.0+261

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 98 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 116 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 180 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 247 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 282 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 298 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 293 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 300 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 290 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 260 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 225 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 191 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 172 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 192 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 257 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 282 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 278 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 245 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 65 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 83 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 161 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 261 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 295 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 322 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 294 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 277 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 273 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 240 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 219 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 179 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 165 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 173 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 240 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 268 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 262 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 231 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 67 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 48 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 113 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 190 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 286 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 341 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 318 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 344 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 295 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 229 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 209 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 168 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 179 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 183 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 266 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 231 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 249 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 229
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 33 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 33 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 18 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: -13 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: -12 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: -24 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 0 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 24 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 16 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 20 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 6 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 11 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 7 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 19 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 16 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 14 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 16 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 14 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: -2 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 35 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 48 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 71 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 8 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: -19 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -24 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -67 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -22 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 11 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 10 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 11 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: -14 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: -10 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: -25 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 37 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 12 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 2
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Trafalgar South - Yarragon South and District was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 8.7% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 71 and account for 6.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 322 persons.

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