Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast
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Longwarry - Longwarry North

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Longwarry - Longwarry North indicate a 30.1% increase in population under working age, a 66.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 24.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Baw Baw Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Longwarry - Longwarry North - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41917.52377.12956.8+104
5 to 92158.42617.83247.4+109
10 to 141626.42417.23057.0+143
15 to 191345.31965.92515.8+117
20 to 241646.41845.52365.4+72
25 to 291847.22176.52686.2+84
30 to 341867.32427.22946.8+108
35 to 391646.42316.92856.5+121
40 to 441415.52066.22726.3+131
45 to 491485.81855.52595.9+111
50 to 541736.81835.52595.9+86
55 to 591817.11805.42395.5+58
60 to 641485.81895.72325.3+84
65 to 691234.81925.72215.1+98
70 to 741164.61574.72074.8+91
75 to 79662.61203.61834.2+117
80 to 84230.9852.61443.3+121
85 and over261.0361.1801.8+54
Total persons2,545100.03,343100.04,354100.0+1,809

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 80 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 144 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 183 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 207 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 221 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 232 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 239 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 259 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 259 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 272 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 285 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 294 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 268 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 236 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 251 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 305 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 324 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 295 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 36 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 85 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 120 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 157 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 192 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 189 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 180 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 183 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 185 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 206 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 231 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 242 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 217 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 184 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 196 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 241 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 261 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 237 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 26 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 23 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 66 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 116 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 123 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 148 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 181 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 173 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 148 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 141 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 164 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 186 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 184 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 164 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 134 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 162 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 215 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 191
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 44 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 58 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 63 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 50 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 29 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 42 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 59 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 76 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 74 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 67 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 54 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 52 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 52 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 52 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 55 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 64 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 63 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 57 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 10 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 62 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 54 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 41 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 69 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 41 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -1 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 10 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 37 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 65 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 67 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 56 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 33 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 20 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 62 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 79 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 46 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 46
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Longwarry - Longwarry North was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 10 to 14, which is expected to increase by 79 and account for 7.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 261 persons.

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