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Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast

Baw Baw Shire

Births and deaths

In 2017, Drouin (North) is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.27 (births per woman), this is expected to remain stable with a rate of 2.27 in 2041.

The number of births in Baw Baw Shire are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Baw Baw ShireYearChange between 2017 and 2041
Baw Baw Shire2.072.070
Drouin (North)2.272.270
Drouin (South)2.272.25-0.01
Drouin West - Buln Buln and District2.072.070
Longwarry - Longwarry North2.082.07-0.01
Mount Baw Baw - Willow Grove and District2.222.21-0.01
Neerim South - Noojee and District2.072.07-0.01
Trafalgar - Trafalgar East2.082.09+0.01
Trafalgar South - Yarragon South and District2.182.16-0.01
Warragul (North)1.891.890
Warragul (South)1.891.88-0.01
Yarragon - Darnum - Nilma2.082.07-0.01
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Baw Baw Shire is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Baw Baw Shire, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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