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Bathurst Regional CouncilPopulation forecast

Abercrombie - Llanarth

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Abercrombie - Llanarth indicate a 22.6% increase in population under working age, a 92.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 19.8% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Abercrombie - Llanarth is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Abercrombie - Llanarth - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42326.83317.74017.7+169
5 to 92928.63478.04258.2+134
10 to 143169.23528.14358.4+119
15 to 193159.23658.44288.2+113
20 to 242015.92265.22595.0+57
25 to 291143.32124.92384.6+124
30 to 341785.22565.92885.5+110
35 to 392156.32806.53446.6+130
40 to 442717.93087.13777.2+107
45 to 493099.02996.93787.3+70
50 to 542216.52956.83536.8+132
55 to 592537.42916.73136.0+59
60 to 642066.02044.72605.0+54
65 to 691163.41974.62334.5+117
70 to 74682.01804.21903.7+122
75 to 79571.71012.31603.1+103
80 to 84401.2421.0751.4+34
85 and over80.2350.8460.9+38
Total persons3,411100.04,322100.05,202100.0+1,790
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Abercrombie - Llanarth was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 9.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 112 and account for 4.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 365 persons.

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