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Bass Coast ShirePopulation forecast

Bass Coast Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Bass Coast Shire indicate a 18.5% increase in population under working age, a 20.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 12.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Bass Coast Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Bass Coast Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)1,7745.32,1645.62,6375.7+863
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)2,6928.13,1308.03,7868.2+1,094
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)2,1236.42,3646.12,8556.1+733
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)1,8065.42,2035.72,6105.6+804
Young workforce (25 to 34)3,1369.43,6669.44,4059.5+1,269
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)5,50916.56,59216.98,13117.5+2,622
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)4,68014.04,81312.45,65412.2+974
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)5,60816.86,09615.76,89414.8+1,287
Seniors (70 to 84)4,85914.66,67917.27,81416.8+2,955
Elderly aged (85 and over)1,1263.41,2333.21,6433.5+517
Total persons33,311100.038,939100.046,429100.0+13,118
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Bass Coast Shire was ages Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69), which accounted for 16.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages Seniors (70 to 84), which is expected to increase by 1,820 and account for 17.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is Seniors (70 to 84) years, with a total of 6,679 persons.

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