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Bass Coast ShirePopulation forecast

Bass Coast Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Bass Coast Shire indicate a 18.0% increase in population under working age, a 24.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 13.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Bass Coast Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Bass Coast Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,7745.32,1645.62,6375.7+863
5 to 91,9555.92,2665.82,7325.9+777
10 to 141,8075.42,1025.42,5615.5+754
15 to 191,6204.91,7934.62,1294.6+510
20 to 241,2393.71,5343.91,8293.9+590
25 to 291,4854.51,7334.42,0594.4+573
30 to 341,6515.01,9335.02,3475.1+696
35 to 391,6004.82,2075.72,6725.8+1,073
40 to 441,8515.62,2735.82,7646.0+913
45 to 492,0586.22,1125.42,6945.8+637
50 to 542,2026.62,2325.72,7345.9+533
55 to 592,4787.42,5816.62,9206.3+442
60 to 642,6948.12,9717.63,3487.2+654
65 to 692,9148.73,1258.03,5477.6+633
70 to 742,2816.82,7577.13,1946.9+914
75 to 791,5304.62,3316.02,6425.7+1,112
80 to 841,0493.11,5924.11,9784.3+929
85 and over1,1263.41,2333.21,6433.5+517
Total persons33,311100.038,939100.046,429100.0+13,118
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Bass Coast Shire was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 8.7% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 801 and account for 6.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 3,125 persons.

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