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City of BallaratPopulation forecast

Alfredton

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2034, the age structure forecasts for Alfredton indicate a 23.5% increase in population under working age, a 46.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 28.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Ballarat is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Alfredton - Total persons202120342036Change between 2021 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 47576.49866.41,0036.4+246
5 to 99367.91,1447.51,1647.4+228
10 to 141,0438.81,2488.11,2798.1+236
15 to 199157.71,2188.01,2417.9+326
20 to 247546.49876.41,0086.4+254
25 to 296685.78375.58545.4+186
30 to 347426.38835.88995.7+157
35 to 398517.29966.51,0116.4+160
40 to 448327.01,0416.81,0586.7+226
45 to 498006.81,0626.91,0846.9+284
50 to 547276.29756.41,0106.4+283
55 to 596645.68395.58825.6+218
60 to 645244.47494.97614.8+237
65 to 694964.26564.36814.3+185
70 to 744433.76013.96274.0+184
75 to 793072.64833.24963.2+189
80 to 842201.93302.23702.4+150
85 and over1391.22831.82871.8+148
Total persons11,818100.015,318100.015,715100.0+3,897
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), January 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Alfredton was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 8.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2034 is forecast to be in ages 15 to 19, which is expected to increase by 303 and account for 8.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2034 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 1,248 persons.

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