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LEARN MORE ABOUT .idBetween 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Victoria indicate a 9.7% increase in males under working age, a 30.6% increase in males of retirement age, and a 17.8% increase in males of working age.
Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.
The forecast age groups of Australia is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function.
| Forecast age structure - Service age groups | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria - Total males | 2021 | 2031 | 2041 | Change between 2021 and 2041 | |||
| Age group (years) | Number | % | Number | % | Number | % | Number |
| Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4) | 197,936 | 6.1 | 226,302 | 5.9 | 256,590 | 5.9 | +58,654 |
| Primary schoolers (5 to 11) | 291,878 | 9.0 | 312,822 | 8.2 | 348,083 | 7.9 | +56,205 |
| Secondary schoolers (12 to 17) | 236,316 | 7.3 | 272,545 | 7.1 | 300,213 | 6.9 | +63,897 |
| Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24) | 292,748 | 9.0 | 384,937 | 10.1 | 405,119 | 9.2 | +112,371 |
| Young workforce (25 to 34) | 498,794 | 15.4 | 569,535 | 14.9 | 670,750 | 15.3 | +171,956 |
| Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) | 663,249 | 20.5 | 808,840 | 21.1 | 896,913 | 20.5 | +233,664 |
| Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59) | 387,089 | 12.0 | 413,160 | 10.8 | 518,223 | 11.8 | +131,134 |
| Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69) | 324,055 | 10.0 | 368,649 | 9.6 | 394,261 | 9.0 | +70,206 |
| Seniors (70 to 84) | 290,616 | 9.0 | 385,639 | 10.1 | 456,879 | 10.4 | +166,263 |
| Elderly aged (85 and over) | 54,317 | 1.7 | 84,401 | 2.2 | 133,621 | 3.1 | +79,304 |
| Total persons | 3,236,998 | 100.0 | 3,826,829 | 100.0 | 4,380,652 | 100.0 | +1,143,654 |
Key findings
In 2021, the dominant age structure for males in Victoria was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 20.5% of the total males.
The largest increase in males between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which is expected to increase by 145,591 and account for 21.1% of the total males.
The largest male 5 year age group in 2031 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 808,840 males.
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