Development history

Armidale Regional Council is a local government area in the New England and Northern Tablelands regions of New South Wales. The Council was formed in 2016 from the merger of the Armidale Dumaresq Shire with the surrounding Guyra Shire. The Armidale Regional Council area is located about halfway between Sydney CBD and Brisbane CBD, about 500 kilometres from each. Tingha was transferred from Armidale Region to Inverell Shire on 1 July 2019.

In addition to the main centre of Armidale and the town of Guyra, the villages located in the area include Ben Lomond, Black Mountain, Dangarsleigh, Ebor, Hillgrove, Kellys Plains, Llangothlin, and Wollomombi. The original inhabitants of the Armidale area are the Anaiwan Aboriginal people.

European settlement of the area dates from the 1830s, with the township of Armidale established in the late 1840s, and substantial population growth occurred from the post-war years to the modern day, particularly around Armidale. The population of the Council area was roughly 16,000 in 1926, growing to about 28,000 by 1976. Thereafter, the population has undergone periodic decline and growth (albeit by a small rate) rising to about 29,332 in 2021. Population remains centred around Armidale, with a smaller population centre in Guyra-South Guyra.

Migration patterns

The primary housing market role that the Armidale Region has played during the post-war period is to attract families from the surrounding rural areas as well as overseas and lose young adults to larger centres such as Sydney, Newcastle and Southeast Queensland. It is expected to continue this role of providing family housing but is dependent on future employment opportunities (such as the potential jobs creation by the New England Renewable Energy Zone). Armidale also attracts students from across New South Wales and interstate because of the location of the University of New England. Consequently, there are many young adults between 18 and 22 living within Armidale, principally Madgwick, West Armidale, North Hill and Armidale Central and Armidale Central. However, when these students graduate, they often leave Armidale, and most likely account for the net loss of persons to employment centres such as City of Sydney, Newcastle and Brisbane. This pattern is likely to continue over the forecast period, as it is not anticipated that the University will significantly grow its student numbers within the Armidale campus. Finally, Armidale attracts older residents from the rural surrounds who need to access services and health facilities. Several aged care facilities and based in and around Armidale, and this role and function is likely to grow over the forecast period.

Historical migration flows, Armidale Regional Council, 2016-2021

Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), May 2023.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

Housing role and function

With the variety of residential and rural locations, different areas within the Armidale Region have developed different roles within the housing market. Areas on the outskirts of Armidale such as Ben Venue - Duval and the town of Guyra - South Guyra are attractive to young families. Areas that contain larger blocks, such as Newling - Acacia Park, or areas of rural-residential land like Rural Armidale appeal to a more mature family market. Madgwick, which contains the University, is dominated by students accessing rental accommodation (60% of households rent accommodation). Similarly, neighbouring areas such as West Armidale, Armidale Central and North Hill have a higher component of medium-density housing, which attracts a combination of younger adults and families as well as retirees and empty nesters. Most of the rural areas in the region attract family households as well as a significant proportion of retirees while losing large numbers of young adults as they seek employment and educational opportunities in larger centres. The variety of function and role of the small areas in the Armidale Region means that population outcomes differ significantly across the LGA.

Housing supply

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the LGA which will also have a major influence in structuring different population futures within the Armidale Region over the next five to ten years. It is expected that there will be a continued demand for residential development, and conservatively this is likely to match historic rates of development, with a steady rate of growth over the forecast period. It is likely that Armidale will see some intensification around Armidale Central, Madgwick-West Armidale and North Hill, with further development of medium density housing to meet the diversity of demand from students, young adults and older persons living in the central areas. In contrast, Armidale is a service centre for a large rural area, and these areas are unlikely to change in terms of land use, with most of the land being conserved for farming, or other uses such as protected forest and conservation.