Powered by .id (informed decisions) for Alexandrina Council
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LEARN MORE ABOUT .idCOVID-19 is a significant health crisis which has resulted in major social and economic disruption across the world. In Australia, the closure of borders (both external and internal) will have impacts on the size and distribution of future population growth. At a local level, the impacts on population growth and demographics outcomes will be felt differently.
.id developed population forecasts for Alexandrina Council in April 2018. These forecasts do not consider potential impacts to assumptions stemming from COVID-19. They do, however, provide a baseline by which to understand where the population may have been without this external shock.
In order to further understand how COVID-19 may impact population growth within Alexandrina Council, we have developed a COVID-19 impact assessment. This assessment is based upon our understanding of typologies (i.e. the characteristics, roles and functions of communities). It demonstrates how these influences may play out across a range of variables, at a localised level. These include:
Alexandrina Council is one of 29 local government areas in regional Australia that can be classified as a peri-urban area.
Peri-urban areas can be difficult to classify, however typical characteristics include:
Based on our understanding of the characteristics of peri-urban areas, we consider the following to be likely impacts on population growth. These insights are not necessarily specific to the Alexandrina Council, but reflect challenges and opportunities for this type of place.
Low short-term impact from the net overseas migration shock as a very low share of overseas migrants move directly to peri-urban areas*.
Low longer-term impact from the net overseas migration shock as a relatively low share of peri-urban residents are born overseas compared to metropolitan cities. Typically, overseas migration as a contribution towards total migration is lower in peri-urban areas compared to metropolitan cities.
Negligible impact on future international student residents. While the impact on the number of new international students will be severe nationally, COVID-19 will have a negligible impact in peri-urban areas which do not contain universities or attract international students.
Interstate migration will be affected considerably in the short-term, due to border closures and economic uncertainty. Areas which typically experience net out-migration to other States will retain more residents, while cities which typically experience net in-migration will not gain as many new residents.
Intrastate migration Typically, peri-urban areas attract new residents from other areas within the State, particularly from metropolitan capital cities. Levels of net in-migration could increase under COVID-19, particularly for peri-urban areas in closer proximity, with strong transport linkages and relatively short commuting times to metropolitan capital cities.
Births are likely to be fewer in the short-term as fertility typically declines in times of economic uncertainty. Peri-urban areas with high levels of fertility and forecast births, will be impacted more severely than other areas.
Deaths caused by COVID-19 are currently at very low levels. This is due to low overall case numbers, however, the number of deaths could increase if case numbers increased in areas with vulnerable, elderly residents. Generally, peri-urban areas have relatively higher shares of residents aged over 70 years and therefore a higher mortality exposure compared to other areas.
Relatively less decline in employed residents means that peri-urban areas may retain (even attract) more residents. Peri-urban areas generally have large numbers of residents working in higher order service jobs in larger cities. Areas with strong employment links to larger cities have relatively lower employment self containment and are more resilient to employed resident change.
A relatively low number of jobs (mostly in primary and secondary industries means) means peri-urban areas will experience less overall job loss, compared to other areas with more jobs in tertiary industries (retail trade, accommodation and food services).
COVID-19 will increase the likelihood of housing relocation among households who are already vulnerable due to factors such as, unemployment or insecure work, low income, and rental or mortgage stress.
Moving house could affect household formation in several ways including: younger residents moving back home with their parents, elderly residents moving in with their children (as dependants), formation of group households and other larger households to share housing costs. This could also mean that peri-urban areas may experience some inflow of previous residents (young and vulnerable adults) who may move back to the family home for financial support.
Availability of lifestyle opportunities including access to open space and natural environment. A large number and diversity of lifestyle opportunities can draw residents to peri-urban areas.
Access to affordable quality accommodation means that peri-urban areas will attract new residents from metropolitan capital cities, which have comparatively more expensive housing.
A range of land uses including farming, fishing, forestry, and tourism, means that peri-urban areas are also attractive to new residents seeking new (and sometimes speculative) ventures including, farm stays, retreats, boutique farms etc.
*Blue Mountains City Council, City of Kalamunda and Central Coast are exemptions, which typically attract larger numbers of overseas migrants.
Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Net migration explains who will move into an area as well as who is leaving the area. It is therefore an excellent way of understanding housing markets and how the role and function of an area may be affected by COVID-19. Changes to migration may disproportionately affect industries such as the education sector due to their reliance on overseas migration.
Migration | |||
---|---|---|---|
Description | Alexandrina Council | Greater Adelaide | Potential impact |
Overseas migration | |||
Share of residents born overseas | 16.2% | 26.3% | Some negative impact |
Overseas migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016) | 12.9% | 126.0% | Some negative impact |
Interstate migration | |||
Interstate migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016) | 5.3% | -30.7% | Some negative impact |
Intrastate migration | |||
Intrastate migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016) | 81.8% | 4.7% | Positive impact |
International student impacts | |||
Residents attending university | 1.7% | 5.7% | Negligible impact |
Residents attending TAFE | 1.5% | 2.0% | Negligible impact |
The size of the population increases through births and decline through deaths. The number of forecast births is an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the fertility rate. The share of residents aged 70+ years provides an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the mortality rate due to COVID-19.
Natural increase | |||
---|---|---|---|
Description | Alexandrina Council | Greater Adelaide | Potential impact |
Natural increase | |||
Natural increase share of forecast population growth (2020 to 2024) | -27.6% | n/a | Some negative impact |
Mortality | |||
Share of residents aged 70+ years (2020) | 20.9% | 11.9% | Exposed |
Economic vulnerability is an indicator of the degree to which COVID-19 may negatively impact the employment prospects of local residents. Communities with high gross regional product decline and/or high levels of local jobs declining are more likely to experience lower levels of population growth. Additionally, economies with scale and diversification may be more likely to retain, and/or attract residents relative to other areas.
Economic vulnerability | |||
---|---|---|---|
Description | Alexandrina Council | Greater Adelaide | Potential impact |
Economic output | |||
Gross regional product change | -2.6% | -10.6% | Some negative impact |
Local job impacts | |||
Local job change | -5.4% | -7.0% | Some negative impact |
Local job change (including JobKeeper recipients) | -6.0% | -12.1% | Some negative impact |
Employed resident impacts | |||
Employed resident change | -0.9% | -7.0% | Some negative impact |
Employed resident change (including JobKeeper recipients) | -2.8% | -12.2% | Some negative impact |
Share of residents who work in LGA | 46.1% | - | - |
This indicator identifies communities with a high proportion of residents who have unmet social and economic needs (housing, income, education etc.) Due to COVID-19, these communities, particularly those with a younger, more mobile population, are expected to experience a greater change in how or where residents live (i.e. younger residents moving back home with their parents, formation of group households to share costs or leaving the area in search of employment opportunities elsewhere).
Resident vulnerability | |||
---|---|---|---|
Description | Alexandrina Council | Greater Adelaide | Potential impact |
Socioeconomic vulnerability | |||
SEIFA Rank (Disadvantage) | 986 | 989 | Some negative impact |
Disengaged youth of 15-24 year olds | 11.5% | 9.1% | Some negative impact |
Share of low income households | 23.9% | 20.6% | Some negative impact |
Housing vulnerability | |||
Share of households under housing stress | 12.4% | 12.6% | Some negative impact |
Mortgage vulnerability | |||
Share of households owned with mortgage | 32.6% | 35.1% | Some exposure |
Share of households under mortgage stress | 13.3% | 10.4% | Negative impact |
Rental vulnerability | |||
Share of households privately rented | 17.2% | 21.4% | Some exposure |
Share of households under rental stress | 40.7% | 31.9% | Negative impact |
Residential mobility | |||
Share population of 18-39 year olds | 17.9% | 28.0% | Some exposure |
Local amenity considers the amenity a region provides its residents, with a particular focus on access to affordable housing and access to lifestyle opportunities. It is an indicator of the livability of an area, in the context of COVID-19.
Local amenity | |||
---|---|---|---|
Description | Alexandrina Council | Greater Adelaide | Potential impact |
Housing Affordability | |||
Housing Median Value | $389,000 | $469,000 | Some positive impact |
Unit Median Value | $274,000 | $325,000 | Negligible impact |
This page shows the latest version of how COVID-19 may impact population growth for Alexandrina Council. As new information becomes available (e.g. data revisions, additional data sets of relevance) updates will be applied.
Recent updates include:
Given the dynamic nature of COVID-19, revisions will be made to our population forecasts once sufficient data is available.
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