Impact of COVID-19 on population growth

COVID-19 is a significant health crisis which has resulted in major social and economic disruption across the world. In Australia, the closure of borders (both external and internal) will have impacts on the size and distribution of future population growth. At a local level, the impacts on population growth and demographics outcomes will be felt differently.

.id developed population forecasts for Alexandrina Council in April 2018. These forecasts do not consider potential impacts to assumptions stemming from COVID-19. They do, however, provide a baseline by which to understand where the population may have been without this external shock.

In order to further understand how COVID-19 may impact population growth within Alexandrina Council, we have developed a COVID-19 impact assessment. This assessment is based upon our understanding of typologies (i.e. the characteristics, roles and functions of communities). It demonstrates how these influences may play out across a range of variables, at a localised level. These include:

• Migration - who will move into an area as well as who is leaving the area.
• Natural increase - impacts on the forecast numbers of births or deaths.
• Economic resilience - availability of jobs.
• Resident vulnerability - unmet social and economic needs.
• Local amenity - factors that make an area a more enjoyable place to live.

Characteristics of peri-urban areas

Alexandrina Council is one of 29 local government areas in regional Australia that can be classified as a peri-urban area.

Peri-urban areas can be difficult to classify, however typical characteristics include:

• are beyond the metropolitan fringe, at the interface between city and country;
• are within a commuting distance of the larger metropolitan city, and have high share of residents working outside the area;
• a significant economic and social relationship with the larger metropolitan city;
• population growth is affected by growth in the larger metropolitan city;
• increasing resident diversity, including ‘sea and tree changers’, parents and homebuilders, and empty-nesters and retirees;
• a mix of urban and rural land uses including farming, fishing, forestry, mining and tourism;
• a number of spaces (sometimes contested) which are in transition. (i.e. rural land fragmentation);
• offer unique ambiance and lifestyle;
• attract new residents from surrounding areas, as well as from metropolitan cities; and
• provide affordable housing compared to metropolitan cities

Potential impacts on peri-urban areas

Based on our understanding of the characteristics of peri-urban areas, we consider the following to be likely impacts on population growth. These insights are not necessarily specific to the Alexandrina Council, but reflect challenges and opportunities for this type of place.

Alexandrina Council

Migration

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Net migration explains who will move into an area as well as who is leaving the area. It is therefore an excellent way of understanding housing markets and how the role and function of an area may be affected by COVID-19. Changes to migration may disproportionately affect industries such as the education sector due to their reliance on overseas migration.

Natural increase

The size of the population increases through births and decline through deaths. The number of forecast births is an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the fertility rate. The share of residents aged 70+ years provides an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the mortality rate due to COVID-19.

Economic vulnerability

Economic vulnerability is an indicator of the degree to which COVID-19 may negatively impact the employment prospects of local residents. Communities with high gross regional product decline and/or high levels of local jobs declining are more likely to experience lower levels of population growth. Additionally, economies with scale and diversification may be more likely to retain, and/or attract residents relative to other areas.

Resident vulnerability

This indicator identifies communities with a high proportion of residents who have unmet social and economic needs (housing, income, education etc.) Due to COVID-19, these communities, particularly those with a younger, more mobile population, are expected to experience a greater change in how or where residents live (i.e. younger residents moving back home with their parents, formation of group households to share costs or leaving the area in search of employment opportunities elsewhere).

Local amenity

Local amenity considers the amenity a region provides its residents, with a particular focus on access to affordable housing and access to lifestyle opportunities. It is an indicator of the livability of an area, in the context of COVID-19.

Data updates

This page shows the latest version of how COVID-19 may impact population growth for Alexandrina Council. As new information becomes available (e.g. data revisions, additional data sets of relevance) updates will be applied.

Recent updates include:

• 7 October 2020: Update to include National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Version 2.1 (September 2020). NIEIR has estimated the potential impacts of coronavirus on economic activity, employment and sectors at the LGA level. Model outputs above are based on information available before September 24.
• 25 September 2020: Update to include National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Version 2.0 (September 2020).

Given the dynamic nature of COVID-19, revisions will be made to our population forecasts once sufficient data is available.

Disclaimer

.id has taken all due care in the preparation of this data. While .id endeavours to provide reliable information and believes the material is accurate it will not be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information. .id accepts no liability with respect to the correctness, accuracy, currency, completeness, relevance or otherwise of this data. Please view our privacy policy, terms of use and legal notices.