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Alexandrina CouncilPopulation forecast

Alexandrina Council

Drivers of population change

Historical migration flows, Alexandrina Council, 2016-2021






Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

rina Council is located on the Fleurieu Peninsula, which lies south of Adelaide and is separated from the state capital by the southern Mount Lofty Ranges. Australia’s longest river, the Murray, ends its journey here. Its settlement pattern consists of a number of historic towns along the southern coastline with urban development stretching from Goolwa in the east to Port Elliot in the west. The remainder of the council area is predominantly rural with one larger regional centre, Strathalbyn, located in the north east. Smaller townships include Mount Compass, nestled in the Mount Lofty ranges; Middleton, located between Goolwa and Port Elliot, and Milang, on the shore of Lake Alexandrina in the east. Rural land uses include viticulture, cropping and dairying, but tourism is also a significant industry.

The natural amenity of the region and its proximity to Adelaide act as significant drivers for growth. In recent years, population growth in Alexandrina has been well above the average for South Australia.

A dual housing market operates in Alexandrina. The region has long been a destination for retirement migrants, particularly the coastal towns in the southern part of the municipality. However, the northern part is increasingly becoming part of Adelaide’s commuting belt. This, coupled with relatively affordable housing opportunities, are attractive to young families seeking a semi-rural lifestyle. This phenomenon is particularly noticeable in Strathalbyn and Mount Compass, both of which have substantial development on their outskirts. In common with most parts of regional Australia, Alexandrina loses young adults to Adelaide, other parts of Australia and overseas, who often move for employment, education or lifestyle reasons.

Future growth in Alexandrina is likely to come from greenfield sites but in recent years infill rates in Goolwa and Port Elliot have increased as dwellings have been constructed on vacant blocks and there has been some subdivision. The demand for retirement living in Alexandrina has spurred the growth of Over 55s villages in Goolwa, Port Elliot, Strathalbyn and Hindmarsh Island, particularly in the last 10 years. The largest greenfield site in Alexandrina is the planned Goolwa Growth Area, located north of the existing town with over 1,300 dwellings assumed in the forecast period. Significant greenfield sites are also located around Strathalbyn and on Hindmarsh Island.

Due to its role as a holiday and retirement destination, dwelling vacancy rates in Alexandrina are higher than average. There are significant variations in vacancy rates across the municipality, with rates highest in the coastal towns where many of these dwellings operate as holiday or second homes. For example, a third of the dwellings on Hindmarsh Island were vacant at the 2021 Census. Some of these dwellings may eventually be resided in on a permanent basis, but overall, only minor decreases in vacancy rates assumed because the role of Alexandrina as a holiday destination is not likely to diminish.

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