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Alexandrina CouncilPopulation forecast

Alexandrina Council

Births and deaths

In 2017, Port Elliot and District is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.39 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.34 in 2041.

The number of births in Alexandrina Council are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Alexandrina CouncilYearChange between 2017 and 2041
Alexandrina Council2.092.11+0.02
Goolwa - Goolwa Beach2.192.17-0.03
Goolwa Growth Area0.312.18+1.87
Hindmarsh Island - Mundoo Island1.512.29+0.78
Middleton and District2.332.24-0.09
Mount Compass - Kuitpo and District2.071.97-0.10
Port Elliot and District2.392.34-0.05
Strathalbyn District2.142.16+0.02
Strathalbyn Town1.821.91+0.09
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), April 2018.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Alexandrina Council is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Alexandrina Council, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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