Wyong Shire CouncilPopulation forecast
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Wyong Shire

Drivers of population change

Development History

Wyong Shire is located on the Central Coast of New South Wales, between 60 and 90 kilometres north of the Sydney GPO. The area comprises the major service centre of Wyong, townships spread around Tuggerah Lake, Budgewoi Lake, Lake Munmorah and the southern shore of Lake Macquarie. The western half of the Shire is predominantly rural. While the first European settler in the area dates from 1825, it was not until the 1870s and 1880s that settlement began for agricultural purposes. Many of the rural settlements date from the early years of the 20th century, particularly after the railway was constructed from Sydney to Newcastle in 1889. By far, the most significant period of development in Wyong Shire has been the post war era. The increase in availability of private motor transport has resulted in significant demand for residential development in coastal areas away from traditional rail-based inland townships. This has been consistent with coastal areas around Australia over this period. The construction of the freeway in the 1960s made it easier for local residents to commute to employment centres in Newcastle and Sydney.

Migration patterns

The primary housing market role that Wyong Shire has played during the post-war period was to attract families and retirees from metropolitan Sydney and Gosford.

The importance of Wyong Shire as a destination for families and retirees from areas further south is expected to continue over the forecast period. As a result of this there is significant pressure for residential expansion within the Shire from both existing residents and from people moving to the area.

It is assumed that this pattern will continue into the future, driving development in the new development fronts in the Warnervale area.

Historical migration flows, Wyong Shire, 2006-2011
Historical migration flows, Wyong Shire, 2006-2011
'Overseas' refers to arrivals only.

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2015.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.

Housing role and function

The appeal of the area is a reflection of the natural attractiveness of the area and the significant amount of residential housing opportunities close to the coast. Local demand is relatively strong as the Shire is creating significant numbers of new households (children leaving home) seeking new dwellings.

With the variety of residential and rural locations, different areas within Wyong Shire have developed different roles within the housing market. Areas on southern shore of Tuggerah Lake, central Wyong and to a lesser extent, Bateau Bay and Shelly Beach are attractive to young families and some retirees. Areas along the coast and lakes such The Entrance, Budgewoi, Toukley, San Remo and Gorokan attract large numbers of retirees. New growth areas such as Hamlyn Terrace, Wadalba, Woongarrah and Warnervale are expected to attract predominantly a young and mature family housing market, similar to that of Blue Haven in recent years. The variety of function and role of the small areas in Wyong Shire means that population outcomes differ significantly across the LGA.

Housing supply

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the LGA which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures within the Shire over the next five to ten years. Significant new 'greenfield' opportunities have been identified in Woongarrah, Hamlyn Terrace, Wadalba and Warnervale while The Entrance, Wyong and Toukley are expected to have growth in dwellings in their town centres. This will generally take the form of medium and high-rise development.

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