Warrnambool CityPopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Warrnambool City

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Warrnambool City is 'Seniors (70 to 84)'.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Warrnambool City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Warrnambool City - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)2,0856.12,6796.63,0536.6+968
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)2,9888.73,7529.34,3259.4+1,337
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)2,6477.73,0537.63,6047.8+956
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)3,2829.63,5628.84,0928.9+809
Young workforce (25 to 34)4,29812.64,88212.15,41111.7+1,113
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)6,25918.37,32918.28,48018.4+2,221
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)4,38812.84,72611.75,25811.4+870
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)3,92511.54,40610.94,83810.5+913
Seniors (70 to 84)3,4079.94,76111.85,61212.1+2,205
Elderly aged (85 and over)9642.81,1752.91,5373.3+573
Total persons34,243100.040,323100.046,209100.0+11,966

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Forecast age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 1,537 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2036: 5,612 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2036: 4,838 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2036: 5,258 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2036: 8,480 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2036: 5,411 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2036: 4,092 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2036: 3,604 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2036: 4,325 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 3,053 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 1,175 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026: 4,761 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026: 4,406 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026: 4,726 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026: 7,329 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026: 4,882 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026: 3,562 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026: 3,053 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026: 3,752 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 2,679 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 964 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016: 3,407 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016: 3,925 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016: 4,388 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016: 6,259 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016: 4,298 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016: 3,282 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016: 2,647 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016: 2,988 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 2,085
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 362 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026 to 2036: 851 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026 to 2036: 432 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026 to 2036: 532 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026 to 2036: 1,152 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026 to 2036: 530 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026 to 2036: 530 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026 to 2036: 551 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026 to 2036: 573 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 374 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 211 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016 to 2026: 1,354 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016 to 2026: 481 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016 to 2026: 337 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016 to 2026: 1,069 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016 to 2026: 584 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016 to 2026: 279 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016 to 2026: 405 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016 to 2026: 764 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 595
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.

Key findings

In Warrnambool City between 2016 and 2026, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to increase by 1,764 (22.8%), and will comprise 23.5% of the total population.

The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 2,046 (24.7%) and comprise 25.6% of the total population.

The largest service age group in 2026 is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)', with a total of 7,329 persons.

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