Sutherland Shire CouncilPopulation forecast
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Sutherland Shire

Births and deaths

In 2016 Burraneer is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 3.35 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 3.12 in 2036.

The number of births in Sutherland Shire are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Sutherland ShireYearChange between 2011 and 2036
Area20112036Number
Sutherland Shire1.871.92+0.05
Alfords Point2.122.84+0.72
Bangor1.892.30+0.40
Barden Ridge - Lucas Heights2.162.70+0.53
Bonnet Bay2.502.59+0.10
Bundeena - Maianbar3.123.00-0.12
Burraneer3.213.12-0.09
Caringbah1.621.630
Caringbah South2.812.57-0.23
Como2.092.25+0.16
Cronulla - Greenhills Beach1.441.52+0.08
Dolans Bay - Port Hacking - Lilli Pilli3.542.64-0.90
Engadine1.761.99+0.23
Grays Point2.762.44-0.32
Gymea1.551.62+0.07
Gymea Bay2.502.48-0.02
Heathcote - Waterfall2.102.28+0.18
Illawong1.932.61+0.68
Jannali1.671.92+0.24
Kareela2.222.52+0.30
Kirrawee2.342.00-0.34
Kurnell2.062.21+0.15
Loftus2.142.24+0.10
Menai - Sandy Point1.491.91+0.41
Miranda1.691.61-0.07
Oyster Bay2.152.31+0.16
Sutherland1.621.49-0.13
Sylvania - Kangaroo Point1.941.96+0.02
Sylvania Waters - Taren Point2.212.30+0.10
Woolooware1.962.01+0.06
Woronora2.482.53+0.05
Woronora Heights2.762.83+0.06
Yarrawarrah2.792.62-0.17
Yowie Bay2.992.84-0.15

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, August 2016.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Sutherland Shire is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Sutherland Shire, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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