Surf Coast ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Surf Coast Shire

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Surf Coast Shire will increase by an average of 381 dwellings per annum to 26,020 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Surf Coast Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Forecast residential development, 2016 to 2036
Surf Coast ShireChange in dwellings between 2016 and 2036
Areanumber%
Surf Coast Shire+7,611+41.3
Anglesea+290+9.8
Deans Marsh and Moriac Districts+340+18.6
Jan Juc - Bellbrae - Bells Beach+627+26.3
Lorne - Aireys Inlet+562+15.3
Old Torquay - Torquay West+2,022+60.3
Torquay North+3,300+101.3
Winchelsea+470+49.4
Torquay+5,322+80.5

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2017.

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 26,020 2035 Total dwellings: 25,638 2034 Total dwellings: 25,263 2033 Total dwellings: 24,887 2032 Total dwellings: 24,507 2031 Total dwellings: 24,132 2030 Total dwellings: 23,750 2029 Total dwellings: 23,371 2028 Total dwellings: 22,993 2027 Total dwellings: 22,607 2026 Total dwellings: 22,224 2025 Total dwellings: 21,837 2024 Total dwellings: 21,451 2023 Total dwellings: 21,066 2022 Total dwellings: 20,684 2021 Total dwellings: 20,297 2020 Total dwellings: 19,909 2019 Total dwellings: 19,519 2018 Total dwellings: 19,140 2017 Total dwellings: 18,776 2036 Total dwellings: 26,020 2035 Total dwellings: 25,638 2034 Total dwellings: 25,263 2033 Total dwellings: 24,887 2032 Total dwellings: 24,507 2031 Total dwellings: 24,132 2030 Total dwellings: 23,750 2029 Total dwellings: 23,371 2028 Total dwellings: 22,993 2027 Total dwellings: 22,607 2026 Total dwellings: 22,224 2025 Total dwellings: 21,837 2024 Total dwellings: 21,451 2023 Total dwellings: 21,066 2022 Total dwellings: 20,684 2021 Total dwellings: 20,297 2020 Total dwellings: 19,909 2019 Total dwellings: 19,519 2018 Total dwellings: 19,140 2017 Total dwellings: 18,776 2036 Forecast development: 382 2035 Forecast development: 375 2034 Forecast development: 376 2033 Forecast development: 380 2032 Forecast development: 375 2031 Forecast development: 382 2030 Forecast development: 379 2029 Forecast development: 378 2028 Forecast development: 386 2027 Forecast development: 383 2026 Forecast development: 387 2025 Forecast development: 386 2024 Forecast development: 385 2023 Forecast development: 382 2022 Forecast development: 387 2021 Forecast development: 388 2020 Forecast development: 390 2019 Forecast development: 379 2018 Forecast development: 364 2017 Forecast development: 367
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
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