Surf Coast ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Surf Coast Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Surf Coast Shire indicate a 15.1% increase in population under working age, a 57.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 18.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Surf Coast Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Surf Coast Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 2,0086.62,3296.12,7966.1+788
5 to 9 2,1977.22,4926.62,9606.5+763
10 to 14 2,1076.92,4476.42,8816.3+774
15 to 19 1,6855.52,2045.82,5595.6+874
20 to 24 1,3304.41,8234.82,1424.7+812
25 to 29 1,4814.91,7184.52,0834.6+602
30 to 34 1,7835.92,0225.32,4365.3+653
35 to 39 1,9926.52,5036.62,9606.5+968
40 to 44 2,2807.52,5976.83,0686.7+787
45 to 49 2,2157.32,4386.42,9556.5+740
50 to 54 2,0786.82,4736.52,8596.3+781
55 to 59 2,1016.92,4636.52,7956.1+694
60 to 64 2,0516.72,3466.22,7846.1+734
65 to 69 1,8836.22,2325.92,6275.7+744
70 to 74 1,3244.32,0415.42,3785.2+1,054
75 to 79 8292.71,7134.52,1094.6+1,280
80 to 84 5421.81,0872.91,6703.7+1,128
85 and over5581.81,0192.71,6553.6+1,096
Total persons30,445100.037,948100.045,717100.0+15,272

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 1,655 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 1,670 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 2,109 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 2,378 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 2,627 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 2,784 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 2,795 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 2,859 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 2,955 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 3,068 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 2,960 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 2,436 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 2,083 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 2,142 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 2,559 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 2,881 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 2,960 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 2,796 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 1,019 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 1,087 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 1,713 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 2,041 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 2,232 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 2,346 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 2,463 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 2,473 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 2,438 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 2,597 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 2,503 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 2,022 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 1,718 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 1,823 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 2,204 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 2,447 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 2,492 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 2,329 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 558 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 542 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 829 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 1,324 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 1,883 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 2,051 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 2,101 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 2,078 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 2,215 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 2,280 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 1,992 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 1,783 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 1,481 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 1,330 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 1,685 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 2,107 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 2,197 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 2,008
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 636 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 583 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 396 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 337 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 396 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: 438 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: 331 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 386 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 517 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 471 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 457 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 414 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 365 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 319 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: 355 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 434 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 468 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 467 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 461 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 545 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 884 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 717 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 348 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 295 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 363 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 395 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 224 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 317 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 511 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 238 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 237 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 494 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 519 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 340 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 295 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 321
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Surf Coast Shire was ages 40 to 44 , which accounted for 7.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79 , which is expected to increase by 884 and account for 4.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 40 to 44 years, with a total of 2,597 persons.

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