South West GroupPopulation forecast
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South West Group

Births and deaths

In 2016 City of Kwinana is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 2.32 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.30 in 2036.

The number of births in South West Group are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
South West GroupYearChange between 2011 and 2036
South West Group2.032.08+0.05
Town of East Fremantle1.821.70-0.13
City of Fremantle1.701.66-0.04
City of Kwinana2.312.30-0.01
City of Melville1.711.69-0.02
City of Rockingham2.292.14-0.15
City of Cockburn2.082.29+0.22

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2017.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in South West Group is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for South West Group, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.