Shoalhaven City CouncilPopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds indicate a 18.1% increase in population under working age, a 21.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 9.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Shoalhaven City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 3265.63254.93224.7-4
5 to 9 3035.23645.53545.1+52
10 to 14 2864.93925.93795.5+93
15 to 19 2664.62914.43074.5+41
20 to 24 1973.42093.12443.5+47
25 to 29 2524.32343.52333.4-18
30 to 34 2614.52774.12693.9+7
35 to 39 3075.33365.03194.6+11
40 to 44 3365.83565.33475.0+12
45 to 49 3175.43765.63795.5+62
50 to 54 3566.14086.14095.9+54
55 to 59 4087.04356.54596.7+52
60 to 64 4397.55057.65257.6+87
65 to 69 5309.15478.25548.0+24
70 to 74 4517.75317.95708.3+119
75 to 79 3245.54827.24997.2+176
80 to 84 1833.13435.13945.7+211
85 and over2965.12664.03324.8+36
Total persons5,834100.06,676100.06,896100.0+1,062

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 332 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 394 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 499 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 570 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 554 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 525 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 459 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 409 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 379 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 347 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 319 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 269 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 233 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 244 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 307 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 379 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 354 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 322 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 266 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 343 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 482 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 531 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 547 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 505 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 435 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 408 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 376 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 356 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 336 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 277 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 234 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 209 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 291 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 392 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 364 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 325 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 296 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 183 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 324 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 451 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 530 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 439 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 408 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 356 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 317 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 336 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 307 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 261 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 252 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 197 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 266 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 286 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 303 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 326
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 66 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 51 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 17 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 40 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 7 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: 20 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: 25 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 1 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 2 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: -9 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: -17 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: -8 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 0 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 36 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: 16 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: -13 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: -10 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: -3 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: -30 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 160 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 159 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 80 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 17 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 66 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 27 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 53 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 60 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 20 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 29 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 15 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: -18 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 12 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 25 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 106 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 61 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: -1
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds was ages 65 to 69 , which accounted for 9.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 80 to 84 , which is expected to increase by 160 and account for 5.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 547 persons.

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