Shoalhaven City CouncilPopulation forecast
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Shoalhaven City

Births and deaths

In 2016 Coastal Mid is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 3.65 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.80 in 2036.

The number of births in Shoalhaven City are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Shoalhaven CityYearChange between 2011 and 2036
Area20112036Number
Shoalhaven City2.182.13-0.05
Bangalee - Cambewarra Village - Tapitallee and Surrounds3.122.31-0.81
Berry and Surrounds2.442.17-0.28
Bomaderry2.502.30-0.20
Burrill Lake - Kings Point - Dolphin Point - Lake Tabourie2.322.08-0.24
Callala Bay - Callala Beach - Currarong - Myola and Surrounds2.682.36-0.33
Coastal Mid4.352.80-1.56
Coastal South4.782.51-2.27
Culburra Beach - Orient Point2.552.35-0.20
Greenwell Point - Terara and Surrounds2.752.36-0.39
Huskisson - Falls Creek - Tomerong - Woollamia2.062.01-0.05
Milton - Mollymook - Mollymook Beach - Narrawallee and Surrounds2.512.28-0.23
North Nowra2.412.20-0.21
Nowra2.272.04-0.23
Rural Balance3.012.53-0.47
Sanctuary Point2.072.02-0.06
Shoalhaven Heads2.022.05+0.03
St Georges Basin - Basin View2.062.00-0.06
Sussex Inlet - Swanhaven - Berrara - Cudmirrah and Surrounds2.772.43-0.34
Ulladulla2.222.24+0.01
Vincentia - Erowal Bay and Surrounds2.432.42-0.01
West Nowra - South Nowra - Nowra Hill and Surrounds1.131.61+0.47
Worrigee2.182.31+0.12

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, February 2015.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Shoalhaven City is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Shoalhaven City, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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