Shellharbour City CouncilPopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Shellharbour City

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Shellharbour City will increase by an average of 382 dwellings per annum to 34,346 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Shellharbour City. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Forecast residential development, 2016 to 2036
Shellharbour CityChange in dwellings between 2016 and 2036
Areanumber%
Shellharbour City+7,634+28.6
Albion Park+414+8.9
Albion Park Rail+176+6.5
Barrack Heights+134+5.5
Blackbutt - Shellharbour City Centre+792+57.7
Flinders+69+2.9
Lake Illawarra+59+3.6
Mount Warrigal+52+2.8
Oak Flats+165+6.4
Rural Balance+4,442+955.3
Shell Cove+1,049+55.6
Shellharbour - Barrack Point+142+7.7
Warilla+140+5.0

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 34,346 2035 Total dwellings: 34,014 2034 Total dwellings: 33,683 2033 Total dwellings: 33,352 2032 Total dwellings: 33,013 2031 Total dwellings: 32,662 2030 Total dwellings: 32,294 2029 Total dwellings: 31,903 2028 Total dwellings: 31,522 2027 Total dwellings: 31,146 2026 Total dwellings: 30,753 2025 Total dwellings: 30,368 2024 Total dwellings: 29,990 2023 Total dwellings: 29,591 2022 Total dwellings: 29,161 2021 Total dwellings: 28,698 2020 Total dwellings: 28,243 2019 Total dwellings: 27,801 2018 Total dwellings: 27,412 2017 Total dwellings: 27,042 2036 Total dwellings: 34,346 2035 Total dwellings: 34,014 2034 Total dwellings: 33,683 2033 Total dwellings: 33,352 2032 Total dwellings: 33,013 2031 Total dwellings: 32,662 2030 Total dwellings: 32,294 2029 Total dwellings: 31,903 2028 Total dwellings: 31,522 2027 Total dwellings: 31,146 2026 Total dwellings: 30,753 2025 Total dwellings: 30,368 2024 Total dwellings: 29,990 2023 Total dwellings: 29,591 2022 Total dwellings: 29,161 2021 Total dwellings: 28,698 2020 Total dwellings: 28,243 2019 Total dwellings: 27,801 2018 Total dwellings: 27,412 2017 Total dwellings: 27,042 2036 Forecast development: 332 2035 Forecast development: 331 2034 Forecast development: 331 2033 Forecast development: 339 2032 Forecast development: 351 2031 Forecast development: 368 2030 Forecast development: 391 2029 Forecast development: 381 2028 Forecast development: 376 2027 Forecast development: 393 2026 Forecast development: 385 2025 Forecast development: 378 2024 Forecast development: 399 2023 Forecast development: 430 2022 Forecast development: 463 2021 Forecast development: 455 2020 Forecast development: 442 2019 Forecast development: 389 2018 Forecast development: 370 2017 Forecast development: 330
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.
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