City of OnkaparingaPopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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City of Onkaparinga

Drivers of population change

Development History

The City of Onkaparinga is located in the outer southern suburbs of Adelaide. European settlement dates from 1838, with the first township established in 1840 at Willunga. The Noarlunga township (now Old Noarlunga) was established in the same year, serving as a commercial centre for the region until the 1980s. Land was used mainly for grazing and farming, particularly wheat growing. Growth took place in the late 1800s, with subsequent towns such as Reynella and McLaren Vale developed around the wine industry. Land was also used for horticulture, orchards and quarrying, with the area remaining largely rural until significant development in the post-war years, spurred by the outward spread of Adelaide's growth.

Rapid development took place between the 1950s and 1970s, particularly in areas around Christies Beach, Christie Downs. The Noarlunga commercial and community centre was developed in the 1970s to cater for the rapidly expanding residential area. The extension of the railway line from Hallett Cove at the same time provided the area with metropolitan rail services. Residential growth spread to the foothill areas of O'Halloran Hill, Happy Valley, Flagstaff Hill and Woodcroft in the 1980s and early 1990s. Growth has continued from the early 1990s, although at a slower rate, with the population rising from about 127,000 in 1991 to over 156,000 in 2011. Much of the growth in the 1990s was in the suburbs of Aberfoyle Park, Seaford, Seaford Rise and Woodcroft. Growth between 2001 and 2011 continued in the suburbs of Seaford and Seaford Rise, but was also significant in the suburb of Aldinga Beach.

Migration patterns

Historically, the City has provided home owning opportunities for residents of the southern suburbs of Adelaide. The Housing Trust of South Australia was also a key player in opening up areas for residential development. In the 2006-2011 period, the City attracted large numbers of persons from overseas as well as the neighbouring areas closer to central Adelaide such as the City of Marion and the City of Mitcham. The City also attracted migrants from the western suburbs such as the Cities of Charles Sturt and West Torrens.

The City is also producing a significant amount of future housing demand from within its own boundaries. Many of the older areas of the City, particularly in the north have older children leaving home and looking to establish new households, often in the new growth areas of Onkaparinga.

Historical migration flows, City of Onkaparinga, 2006-2011
Historical migration flows, City of Onkaparinga, 2006-2011
'Overseas' refers to arrivals only.

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.

Housing role and function

Future levels of population growth in the City of Onkaparinga are driven by overall demand of new households in the southern and western suburbs of Adelaide. The City will continue to offer the most significant supplies of new housing land in Adelaide’s south. The recent extension of metropolitan rail services into the Seaford area, provide even greater impetus for new housing in this area. Onkaparinga also provides an attractive seaside aspect that will continue to attract new households seeking a coastal lifestyle.

Housing supply

The City of Onkaparinga is a large and diverse Local Government Area. The City features large established areas, rural districts, historic townships and greenfield growth areas. Each of these areas plays a different role in providing future housing opportunities. New greenfield growth areas have been identified in Hackham, Seaford Meadows and Seaford Heights. Coastal townships such as Sellicks Beach and Aldinga/Aldinga Beach are also set for residential expansion. The major commercial hub at Noarlunga Centre is expected to add significant numbers of dwellings over the forecast period. Older established areas such as Morphett Vale and Christie Downs are assumed to cater for infill development. By contrast, many areas of the City, such as the Reynella area, Old Noarlunga, Onkaparinga Hills and Maslin Beach are assumed to have relatively few new dwellings added over the forecast period.

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