Shire of NillumbikPopulation forecast
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Nillumbik Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2011 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Nillumbik Shire indicate a 9.3% decrease in population under working age, a 106.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 5.1% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Nillumbik Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Nillumbik Shire - Total persons201120262036Change between 2011 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 3,6285.83,2825.03,5465.1-82
5 to 9 4,4297.13,8995.94,1866.0-243
10 to 14 4,7217.54,4086.74,6756.7-46
15 to 19 5,1758.34,6807.14,8066.9-369
20 to 24 4,7257.54,1186.34,1556.0-570
25 to 29 2,9244.73,0964.73,2084.6+284
30 to 34 2,7934.53,1624.83,2994.7+506
35 to 39 4,1356.63,9766.14,1766.0+41
40 to 44 5,0708.14,6057.04,9607.1-110
45 to 49 5,2778.44,7207.25,1147.3-163
50 to 54 5,5028.84,7937.34,9457.1-557
55 to 59 4,6997.54,5647.04,4806.4-219
60 to 64 3,7356.04,0856.24,0195.8+284
65 to 69 2,4493.93,7755.83,6365.2+1,187
70 to 74 1,4502.33,1554.83,2634.7+1,813
75 to 79 8151.32,4623.82,9434.2+2,128
80 to 84 5860.91,4852.32,1653.1+1,579
85 and over6031.01,3022.02,0142.9+1,411
Total persons62,716100.065,567100.069,588100.0+6,872

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, June 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 2,014 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 2,165 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 2,943 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 3,263 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 3,636 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 4,019 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 4,480 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 4,945 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 5,114 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 4,960 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 4,176 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 3,299 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 3,208 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 4,155 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 4,806 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 4,675 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 4,186 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 3,546 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 1,302 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 1,485 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 2,462 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 3,155 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 3,775 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 4,085 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 4,564 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 4,793 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 4,720 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 4,605 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 3,976 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 3,162 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 3,096 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 4,118 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 4,680 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 4,408 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 3,899 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 3,282 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2011: 603 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2011: 586 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2011: 815 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2011: 1,450 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2011: 2,449 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2011: 3,735 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2011: 4,699 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2011: 5,502 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2011: 5,277 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2011: 5,070 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2011: 4,135 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2011: 2,793 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2011: 2,924 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2011: 4,725 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2011: 5,175 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2011: 4,721 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2011: 4,429 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2011: 3,628
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, June 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 712 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 680 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 481 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 107 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: -139 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: -65 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: -85 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 152 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 393 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 355 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 200 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 137 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 113 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 37 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: 126 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 267 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 287 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 265 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2026: 699 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2026: 899 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2026: 1,647 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2026: 1,705 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2026: 1,326 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2026: 350 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2026: -135 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2026: -709 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2026: -557 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2026: -465 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2026: -159 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2026: 369 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2026: 172 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2026: -607 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2026: -495 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2026: -313 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2026: -530 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2026: -346
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, June 2017.

Key findings

In 2011, the dominant age structure for persons in Nillumbik Shire was ages 50 to 54 , which accounted for 8.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2011 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74 , which is expected to increase by 1,705 and account for 4.8% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 50 to 54 years, with a total of 4,793 persons.

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