Shire of NillumbikPopulation forecast
census-message-logo

This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

Skip to content

Nillumbik Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Nillumbik Shire indicate a 6.5% decrease in population under working age, a 49.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.7% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Nillumbik Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Nillumbik Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 3,6155.63,3745.13,6325.2+17
5 to 9 4,5017.04,0086.04,2766.1-224
10 to 14 4,7247.34,6246.94,7496.7+25
15 to 19 4,8017.54,9067.44,8716.9+69
20 to 24 4,3096.74,1716.24,2526.0-57
25 to 29 3,2655.13,1324.73,2764.7+11
30 to 34 3,0624.83,2064.83,3344.7+272
35 to 39 3,6305.63,9916.04,1885.9+558
40 to 44 4,8027.54,6747.04,9767.1+174
45 to 49 5,2568.24,7637.15,1297.3-127
50 to 54 5,0977.94,9077.44,9887.1-108
55 to 59 5,0007.84,6857.04,5126.4-488
60 to 64 4,0746.34,1276.24,0935.8+19
65 to 69 3,3145.23,8215.73,7095.3+395
70 to 74 2,1753.43,1444.73,2964.7+1,121
75 to 79 1,2391.92,4773.72,9814.2+1,742
80 to 84 7331.11,4932.22,1683.1+1,435
85 and over6821.11,2361.91,9612.8+1,279
Total persons64,276100.066,737100.070,391100.0+6,115

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 1,961 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 2,168 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 2,981 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 3,296 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 3,709 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 4,093 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 4,512 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 4,988 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 5,129 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 4,976 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 4,188 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 3,334 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 3,276 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 4,252 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 4,871 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 4,749 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 4,276 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 3,632 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 1,236 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 1,493 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 2,477 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 3,144 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 3,821 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 4,127 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 4,685 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 4,907 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 4,763 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 4,674 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 3,991 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 3,206 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 3,132 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 4,171 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 4,906 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 4,624 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 4,008 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 3,374 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 682 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 733 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 1,239 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 2,175 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 3,314 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 4,074 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 5,000 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 5,097 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 5,256 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 4,802 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 3,630 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 3,062 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 3,265 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 4,309 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 4,801 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 4,724 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 4,501 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 3,615
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 724 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 676 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 504 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 152 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: -112 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: -35 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: -173 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 81 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 366 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 302 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 197 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 129 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 144 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 81 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: -35 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 125 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 269 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 258 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 554 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 760 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 1,238 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 969 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 507 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 54 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -315 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -190 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -493 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: -127 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 361 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 144 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: -133 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: -138 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 105 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -100 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: -493 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: -241
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Nillumbik Shire was ages 45 to 49 , which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79 , which is expected to increase by 1,238 and account for 3.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 50 to 54 years, with a total of 4,907 persons.

v17.11.15-1.0.1