Shire of MundaringPopulation forecast
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Shire of Mundaring

Drivers of population change

The Shire of Mundaring is located on the eastern fringe of Perth. The Shire is predominantly rural, with large areas of National Park. The bulk of the population lives on the suburban fringe of Perth as well as in the numerous townships located predominately in the west of the Shire.

The original inhabitants of the Mundaring area were the Nyungar Aboriginal people. European settlement dates from the 1840s, but urban development was minimal until the 1880s, with villages established mainly along the railway lines and the Great Eastern Highway. Growth took place during the late 1800s and into the early 1900s, aided by the construction of the Mundaring Weir and improved transport access. However, significant residential development in the Shire has been a relatively recent phenomenon.

The Shire of Mundaring increased in population by almost two-thirds over the twenty five years to 2006, although growth has slowed since the late 1990s. Since 1991, population growth has been focused around Helena Valley - Boya, Mundaring - Mahogany Creek and the Outer Eastern Region (growth in corrective services). The primary housing market role that the Shire played over this period was to provide rural-residential housing options for mature and established families generally originating in metropolitan Perth or from overseas. As growth has slowed, the Shire of Mundaring has lost population in net terms to surrounding local government areas as well as those to the south of Perth, such as Mandurah and the Bunbury-Busselton areas. These trends are likely to continue into the future, albeit at a lower level, as more housing supply will absorb greater demand from within the Shire.

Historical migration flows, Shire of Mundaring, 2006-2011
Historical migration flows, Shire of Mundaring, 2006-2011
'Overseas' refers to arrivals only.

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2031, prepared by .id the population experts, February 2009.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.

With the variety of residential and rural locations, different areas within the Shire of Mundaring have developed different roles within the housing market. The Hills areas, such as Darlington, Glen Forrest, Parkerville - Hovea, Stoneville, Mundaring - Mahogany Creek and Mount Helena, tend to attract more mature and established families. Some areas in the west of the Shire, such as Helena Valley - Boya, Greenmount and Swan View, have greater access to Perth and tend to attract a greater share of younger families. Midvale - Bellevue attracts some young adults and older persons due to affordability and accessibility reasons. Nearly all areas of the Shire lose young adults as they seek employment and educational opportunities in larger centres. This trend is common to most areas on the periphery of major cities in Australia. The variety of function and role of the small areas in the Shire of Mundaring means that population outcomes differ significantly across the Shire.

There are also significant differences in the supply of future residential land within the Shire which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to ten years. Significant new development opportunities have been identified in Parkerville - Hovea, Stoneville and Helena Valley - Boya while more established residential areas of the Shire such as Darlington and Glen Forrest have relatively low amounts of new dwellings expected over the forecast period.

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