Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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Mornington Peninsula Shire

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Mornington Peninsula Shire will increase by an average of 661 dwellings per annum to 100,699 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Mornington Peninsula Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Forecast residential development, 2011 to 2036
Mornington Peninsula ShireChange in dwellings between 2011 and 2036
Areanumber%
Mornington Peninsula Shire+16,521+19.6
Balnarring - Balnarring Beach - Merricks - Merricks Beach - Somers+219+7.7
Baxter - Pearcedale+119+12.5
Bittern - Crib Point+939+36.0
Dromana - Safety Beach+3,240+47.7
Flinders - Shoreham - Point Leo+154+9.6
Hastings+1,335+34.7
HMAS Cerberus--0
Moorooduc - Tuerong+34+6.7
Mornington+2,213+20.9
Mount Eliza+963+14.4
Mount Martha+1,418+18.6
Portsea - Sorrento - Blairgowrie+442+5.8
Red Hill - Red Hill South - Merricks North - Main Ridge - Arthurs Seat+126+7.7
Rosebud - Capel Sound - McCrae - Boneo - Fingal - Cape Schanck+3,062+22.3
Rye - Tootgarook - St Andrews Beach+1,289+11.1
Somerville+718+17.1
Tyabb+250+20.0

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, April 2015.

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 100,699 2035 Total dwellings: 100,213 2034 Total dwellings: 99,727 2033 Total dwellings: 99,246 2032 Total dwellings: 98,765 2031 Total dwellings: 98,293 2030 Total dwellings: 97,826 2029 Total dwellings: 97,358 2028 Total dwellings: 96,889 2027 Total dwellings: 96,421 2026 Total dwellings: 95,956 2025 Total dwellings: 95,506 2024 Total dwellings: 95,054 2023 Total dwellings: 94,575 2022 Total dwellings: 94,065 2021 Total dwellings: 93,513 2020 Total dwellings: 92,881 2019 Total dwellings: 92,119 2018 Total dwellings: 91,260 2017 Total dwellings: 90,305 2016 Total dwellings: 89,275 2015 Total dwellings: 88,215 2014 Total dwellings: 87,183 2013 Total dwellings: 86,229 2012 Total dwellings: 85,307 2036 Total dwellings: 100,699 2035 Total dwellings: 100,213 2034 Total dwellings: 99,727 2033 Total dwellings: 99,246 2032 Total dwellings: 98,765 2031 Total dwellings: 98,293 2030 Total dwellings: 97,826 2029 Total dwellings: 97,358 2028 Total dwellings: 96,889 2027 Total dwellings: 96,421 2026 Total dwellings: 95,956 2025 Total dwellings: 95,506 2024 Total dwellings: 95,054 2023 Total dwellings: 94,575 2022 Total dwellings: 94,065 2021 Total dwellings: 93,513 2020 Total dwellings: 92,881 2019 Total dwellings: 92,119 2018 Total dwellings: 91,260 2017 Total dwellings: 90,305 2016 Total dwellings: 89,275 2015 Total dwellings: 88,215 2014 Total dwellings: 87,183 2013 Total dwellings: 86,229 2012 Total dwellings: 85,307 2036 Forecast development: 486 2035 Forecast development: 486 2034 Forecast development: 481 2033 Forecast development: 481 2032 Forecast development: 472 2031 Forecast development: 467 2030 Forecast development: 468 2029 Forecast development: 469 2028 Forecast development: 468 2027 Forecast development: 465 2026 Forecast development: 450 2025 Forecast development: 452 2024 Forecast development: 479 2023 Forecast development: 510 2022 Forecast development: 552 2021 Forecast development: 632 2020 Forecast development: 762 2019 Forecast development: 859 2018 Forecast development: 955 2017 Forecast development: 1,030 2016 Forecast development: 1,060 2015 Forecast development: 1,032 2014 Forecast development: 954 2013 Forecast development: 922 2012 Forecast development: 1,129
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2015.
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