Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Mornington Peninsula Shire

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Mornington Peninsula Shire will increase by an average of 571 dwellings per annum to 101,781 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Mornington Peninsula Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Forecast residential development, 2016 to 2036
Mornington Peninsula ShireChange in dwellings between 2016 and 2036
Areanumber%
Mornington Peninsula Shire+11,424+12.6
Balnarring - Balnarring Beach - Merricks - Merricks Beach - Somers+133+4.5
Baxter - Pearcedale+96+9.9
Bittern - Crib Point+718+25.3
Dromana - Safety Beach+2,319+29.5
Flinders - Shoreham - Point Leo+110+6.8
Hastings+739+16.8
HMAS Cerberus--0
Moorooduc - Tuerong+21+4.1
Mornington+1,539+13.4
Mount Eliza+799+11.5
Mount Martha+792+9.5
Portsea - Sorrento - Blairgowrie+315+3.9
Red Hill - Red Hill South - Merricks North - Main Ridge - Arthurs Seat+81+5.1
Rosebud - Capel Sound - McCrae - Boneo - Fingal - Cape Schanck+2,184+14.8
Rye - Tootgarook - St Andrews Beach+983+8.1
Somerville+438+10.0
Tyabb+157+12.1

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 101,781 2035 Total dwellings: 101,295 2034 Total dwellings: 100,809 2033 Total dwellings: 100,328 2032 Total dwellings: 99,847 2031 Total dwellings: 99,375 2030 Total dwellings: 98,908 2029 Total dwellings: 98,440 2028 Total dwellings: 97,971 2027 Total dwellings: 97,503 2026 Total dwellings: 97,038 2025 Total dwellings: 96,588 2024 Total dwellings: 96,136 2023 Total dwellings: 95,657 2022 Total dwellings: 95,147 2021 Total dwellings: 94,595 2020 Total dwellings: 93,963 2019 Total dwellings: 93,201 2018 Total dwellings: 92,342 2017 Total dwellings: 91,387 2036 Total dwellings: 101,781 2035 Total dwellings: 101,295 2034 Total dwellings: 100,809 2033 Total dwellings: 100,328 2032 Total dwellings: 99,847 2031 Total dwellings: 99,375 2030 Total dwellings: 98,908 2029 Total dwellings: 98,440 2028 Total dwellings: 97,971 2027 Total dwellings: 97,503 2026 Total dwellings: 97,038 2025 Total dwellings: 96,588 2024 Total dwellings: 96,136 2023 Total dwellings: 95,657 2022 Total dwellings: 95,147 2021 Total dwellings: 94,595 2020 Total dwellings: 93,963 2019 Total dwellings: 93,201 2018 Total dwellings: 92,342 2017 Total dwellings: 91,387 2036 Forecast development: 486 2035 Forecast development: 486 2034 Forecast development: 481 2033 Forecast development: 481 2032 Forecast development: 472 2031 Forecast development: 467 2030 Forecast development: 468 2029 Forecast development: 469 2028 Forecast development: 468 2027 Forecast development: 465 2026 Forecast development: 450 2025 Forecast development: 452 2024 Forecast development: 479 2023 Forecast development: 510 2022 Forecast development: 552 2021 Forecast development: 632 2020 Forecast development: 762 2019 Forecast development: 859 2018 Forecast development: 955 2017 Forecast development: 1,030
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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