Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Mornington Peninsula Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Mornington Peninsula Shire indicate a 3.9% increase in population under working age, a 19.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Mornington Peninsula Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Mornington Peninsula Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 8,7775.59,2215.49,6645.3+887
5 to 9 10,1196.310,1215.910,5355.8+416
10 to 14 9,5726.010,2245.910,7235.9+1,151
15 to 19 9,3395.89,9865.810,1985.6+859
20 to 24 8,1245.18,1054.78,5074.7+383
25 to 29 7,4024.67,1404.27,5324.2+130
30 to 34 7,5764.77,8494.68,1274.5+551
35 to 39 8,2785.19,5565.69,8855.5+1,607
40 to 44 10,5036.510,6436.211,1506.2+647
45 to 49 11,1696.910,4066.011,2066.2+37
50 to 54 10,6296.610,7126.210,9906.1+361
55 to 59 10,7136.711,2046.510,9956.1+282
60 to 64 10,6216.611,5586.711,8296.5+1,208
65 to 69 11,4037.111,7656.812,3736.8+970
70 to 74 9,5705.910,7756.311,6896.5+2,119
75 to 79 7,1524.49,7565.710,2525.7+3,100
80 to 84 4,8993.06,9414.07,9354.4+3,036
85 and over5,0163.16,0753.57,5054.1+2,489
Total persons160,862100.0172,036100.0181,097100.0+20,235

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 7,505 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 7,935 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 10,252 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 11,689 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 12,373 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 11,829 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 10,995 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 10,990 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 11,206 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 11,150 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 9,885 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 8,127 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 7,532 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 8,507 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 10,198 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 10,723 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 10,535 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 9,664 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 6,075 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 6,941 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 9,756 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 10,775 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 11,765 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 11,558 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 11,204 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 10,712 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 10,406 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 10,643 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 9,556 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 7,849 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 7,140 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 8,105 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 9,986 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 10,224 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 10,121 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 9,221 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 5,016 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 4,899 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 7,152 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 9,570 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 11,403 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 10,621 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 10,713 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 10,629 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 11,169 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 10,503 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 8,278 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 7,576 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 7,402 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 8,124 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 9,339 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 9,572 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 10,119 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 8,777
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 1,430 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 994 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 497 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 915 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 607 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: 270 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: -208 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 278 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 800 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 507 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 329 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 279 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 392 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 402 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: 213 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 499 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 414 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 443 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 1,059 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 2,042 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 2,604 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 1,205 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 362 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 937 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 491 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 83 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -763 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 140 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 1,278 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 273 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: -262 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: -19 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 647 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 652 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 2 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 444
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Mornington Peninsula Shire was ages 65 to 69 , which accounted for 7.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79 , which is expected to increase by 2,604 and account for 5.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 11,765 persons.

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