Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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Mornington Peninsula Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2011 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Mornington Peninsula Shire indicate a 8.2% increase in population under working age, a 38.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 6.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Mornington Peninsula Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Mornington Peninsula Shire - Total persons201120262036Change between 2011 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 8,6455.89,1365.49,5445.4+899
5 to 9 9,1996.29,9985.910,4095.8+1,210
10 to 14 9,1936.210,1286.010,5925.9+1,399
15 to 19 9,3666.39,8355.810,1355.7+769
20 to 24 7,9185.38,0344.78,3434.7+425
25 to 29 6,4454.37,0274.27,3984.2+953
30 to 34 6,7654.57,7524.68,0224.5+1,257
35 to 39 9,2966.29,4205.69,7375.5+441
40 to 44 10,5067.010,4726.210,9856.2+479
45 to 49 10,0936.810,5086.211,0426.2+949
50 to 54 10,0206.710,6446.310,8026.1+782
55 to 59 9,5486.410,8456.410,9446.1+1,396
60 to 64 10,3516.911,1996.611,6686.5+1,317
65 to 69 9,5536.411,5006.812,0276.8+2,474
70 to 74 7,5245.010,5376.211,3676.4+3,843
75 to 79 5,8984.09,3825.510,0405.6+4,142
80 to 84 4,7633.26,7994.07,7814.4+3,018
85 and over4,1882.85,9223.57,3114.1+3,123
Total persons149,271100.0169,136100.0178,146100.0+28,875

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, April 2015.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 7,311 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 7,781 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 10,040 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 11,367 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 12,027 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 11,668 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 10,944 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 10,802 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 11,042 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 10,985 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 9,737 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 8,022 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 7,398 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 8,343 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 10,135 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 10,592 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 10,409 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 9,544 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 5,922 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 6,799 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 9,382 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 10,537 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 11,500 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 11,199 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 10,845 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 10,644 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 10,508 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 10,472 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 9,420 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 7,752 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 7,027 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 8,034 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 9,835 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 10,128 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 9,998 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 9,136 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2011: 4,188 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2011: 4,763 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2011: 5,898 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2011: 7,524 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2011: 9,553 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2011: 10,351 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2011: 9,548 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2011: 10,020 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2011: 10,093 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2011: 10,506 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2011: 9,296 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2011: 6,765 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2011: 6,445 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2011: 7,918 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2011: 9,366 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2011: 9,193 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2011: 9,199 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2011: 8,645
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2015.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 1,389 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 982 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 658 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 830 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 527 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: 469 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: 100 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 158 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 534 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 513 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 317 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 270 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 372 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 309 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: 299 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 464 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 411 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 409 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2026: 1,734 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2026: 2,036 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2026: 3,484 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2026: 3,013 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2026: 1,947 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2026: 848 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2026: 1,297 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2026: 624 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2026: 415 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2026: -34 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2026: 124 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2026: 987 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2026: 582 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2026: 116 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2026: 469 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2026: 935 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2026: 799 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2026: 491
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2015.

Key findings

In 2011, the dominant age structure for persons in Mornington Peninsula Shire was ages 40 to 44 , which accounted for 7.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2011 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79 , which is expected to increase by 3,484 and account for 5.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 11,500 persons.

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