Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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Mornington Peninsula Shire

Components of population change

The greatest population change for Mornington Peninsula Shire is forecast for the period from 2012 to 2016, which is expected to have a net increase of 8,712 people.

There are two ways in which populations can change, through net migration and/or through natural increase (births minus deaths). Some areas are more driven by one or other of these factors. Migration is largely driven by housing development, whereas natural increase is a function of the age of the population.

Components of population change
Mornington Peninsula ShireForecast period
Component2012 to 20162017 to 20212022 to 20262027 to 20312032 to 2036
Births8,1598,5698,6628,6848,896
Deaths7,2547,8218,1638,6179,082
Natural increase/decrease90574849967-186
Net migration7,4616,3103,2373,9775,010
Change in persons in non-private dwellings34717318512616

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, April 2015.

Forecast population change
Forecast population change 2036 forecast population change: 1,036 2035 forecast population change: 996 2034 forecast population change: 962 2033 forecast population change: 941 2032 forecast population change: 904 2031 forecast population change: 992 2030 forecast population change: 834 2029 forecast population change: 815 2028 forecast population change: 794 2027 forecast population change: 736 2026 forecast population change: 873 2025 forecast population change: 673 2024 forecast population change: 732 2023 forecast population change: 759 2022 forecast population change: 884 2021 forecast population change: 1,188 2020 forecast population change: 1,291 2019 forecast population change: 1,397 2018 forecast population change: 1,629 2017 forecast population change: 1,726 2016 forecast population change: 2,119 2015 forecast population change: 1,760 2014 forecast population change: 1,610 2013 forecast population change: 1,421 2012 forecast population change: 1,804
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2015.
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease 2036 Natural increase: -44 2035 Natural increase: -44 2034 Natural increase: -39 2033 Natural increase: -34 2032 Natural increase: -26 2031 Natural increase: -12 2030 Natural increase: -2 2029 Natural increase: 11 2028 Natural increase: 26 2027 Natural increase: 44 2026 Natural increase: 64 2025 Natural increase: 83 2024 Natural increase: 101 2023 Natural increase: 120 2022 Natural increase: 132 2021 Natural increase: 142 2020 Natural increase: 149 2019 Natural increase: 152 2018 Natural increase: 152 2017 Natural increase: 153 2016 Natural increase: 156 2015 Natural increase: 156 2014 Natural increase: 159 2013 Natural increase: 163 2012 Natural increase: 272 2036 Total births: 1,802 2035 Total births: 1,790 2034 Total births: 1,779 2033 Total births: 1,768 2032 Total births: 1,758 2031 Total births: 1,749 2030 Total births: 1,742 2029 Total births: 1,735 2028 Total births: 1,730 2027 Total births: 1,728 2026 Total births: 1,728 2025 Total births: 1,730 2024 Total births: 1,732 2023 Total births: 1,736 2022 Total births: 1,737 2021 Total births: 1,735 2020 Total births: 1,727 2019 Total births: 1,718 2018 Total births: 1,703 2017 Total births: 1,686 2016 Total births: 1,668 2015 Total births: 1,649 2014 Total births: 1,634 2013 Total births: 1,623 2012 Total births: 1,585 2036 Total deaths: 1,846 2035 Total deaths: 1,834 2034 Total deaths: 1,818 2033 Total deaths: 1,801 2032 Total deaths: 1,784 2031 Total deaths: 1,761 2030 Total deaths: 1,743 2029 Total deaths: 1,724 2028 Total deaths: 1,704 2027 Total deaths: 1,684 2026 Total deaths: 1,664 2025 Total deaths: 1,647 2024 Total deaths: 1,631 2023 Total deaths: 1,616 2022 Total deaths: 1,605 2021 Total deaths: 1,593 2020 Total deaths: 1,579 2019 Total deaths: 1,566 2018 Total deaths: 1,551 2017 Total deaths: 1,533 2016 Total deaths: 1,512 2015 Total deaths: 1,494 2014 Total deaths: 1,475 2013 Total deaths: 1,460 2012 Total deaths: 1,313 2036 Natural increase: -44 2035 Natural increase: -44 2034 Natural increase: -39 2033 Natural increase: -34 2032 Natural increase: -26 2031 Natural increase: -12 2030 Natural increase: -2 2029 Natural increase: 11 2028 Natural increase: 26 2027 Natural increase: 44 2026 Natural increase: 64 2025 Natural increase: 83 2024 Natural increase: 101 2023 Natural increase: 120 2022 Natural increase: 132 2021 Natural increase: 142 2020 Natural increase: 149 2019 Natural increase: 152 2018 Natural increase: 152 2017 Natural increase: 153 2016 Natural increase: 156 2015 Natural increase: 156 2014 Natural increase: 159 2013 Natural increase: 163 2012 Natural increase: 272 2036 Total births: 1,802 2035 Total births: 1,790 2034 Total births: 1,779 2033 Total births: 1,768 2032 Total births: 1,758 2031 Total births: 1,749 2030 Total births: 1,742 2029 Total births: 1,735 2028 Total births: 1,730 2027 Total births: 1,728 2026 Total births: 1,728 2025 Total births: 1,730 2024 Total births: 1,732 2023 Total births: 1,736 2022 Total births: 1,737 2021 Total births: 1,735 2020 Total births: 1,727 2019 Total births: 1,718 2018 Total births: 1,703 2017 Total births: 1,686 2016 Total births: 1,668 2015 Total births: 1,649 2014 Total births: 1,634 2013 Total births: 1,623 2012 Total births: 1,585 2036 Total deaths: 1,846 2035 Total deaths: 1,834 2034 Total deaths: 1,818 2033 Total deaths: 1,801 2032 Total deaths: 1,784 2031 Total deaths: 1,761 2030 Total deaths: 1,743 2029 Total deaths: 1,724 2028 Total deaths: 1,704 2027 Total deaths: 1,684 2026 Total deaths: 1,664 2025 Total deaths: 1,647 2024 Total deaths: 1,631 2023 Total deaths: 1,616 2022 Total deaths: 1,605 2021 Total deaths: 1,593 2020 Total deaths: 1,579 2019 Total deaths: 1,566 2018 Total deaths: 1,551 2017 Total deaths: 1,533 2016 Total deaths: 1,512 2015 Total deaths: 1,494 2014 Total deaths: 1,475 2013 Total deaths: 1,460 2012 Total deaths: 1,313
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2015.
Forecast in, out and net migration
Forecast in, out and net migration 2036 Total net migration: 1,064 2035 Total net migration: 1,040 2034 Total net migration: 1,001 2033 Total net migration: 974 2032 Total net migration: 930 2031 Total net migration: 878 2030 Total net migration: 835 2029 Total net migration: 804 2028 Total net migration: 768 2027 Total net migration: 692 2026 Total net migration: 624 2025 Total net migration: 591 2024 Total net migration: 630 2023 Total net migration: 639 2022 Total net migration: 753 2021 Total net migration: 873 2020 Total net migration: 1,143 2019 Total net migration: 1,245 2018 Total net migration: 1,476 2017 Total net migration: 1,573 2016 Total net migration: 1,616 2015 Total net migration: 1,604 2014 Total net migration: 1,451 2013 Total net migration: 1,257 2012 Total net migration: 1,532 2036 Total out migration: 12,841 2035 Total out migration: 12,768 2034 Total out migration: 12,697 2033 Total out migration: 12,627 2032 Total out migration: 12,563 2031 Total out migration: 12,501 2030 Total out migration: 12,444 2029 Total out migration: 12,394 2028 Total out migration: 12,344 2027 Total out migration: 12,299 2026 Total out migration: 12,263 2025 Total out migration: 12,234 2024 Total out migration: 12,201 2023 Total out migration: 12,169 2022 Total out migration: 12,178 2021 Total out migration: 12,142 2020 Total out migration: 12,069 2019 Total out migration: 11,986 2018 Total out migration: 11,879 2017 Total out migration: 11,763 2016 Total out migration: 11,649 2015 Total out migration: 11,545 2014 Total out migration: 11,472 2013 Total out migration: 11,403 2012 Total out migration: 11,462 2036 Total in migration: 13,904 2035 Total in migration: 13,808 2034 Total in migration: 13,698 2033 Total in migration: 13,601 2032 Total in migration: 13,493 2031 Total in migration: 13,379 2030 Total in migration: 13,279 2029 Total in migration: 13,198 2028 Total in migration: 13,111 2027 Total in migration: 12,991 2026 Total in migration: 12,887 2025 Total in migration: 12,824 2024 Total in migration: 12,832 2023 Total in migration: 12,808 2022 Total in migration: 12,931 2021 Total in migration: 13,016 2020 Total in migration: 13,211 2019 Total in migration: 13,231 2018 Total in migration: 13,356 2017 Total in migration: 13,335 2016 Total in migration: 13,266 2015 Total in migration: 13,149 2014 Total in migration: 12,922 2013 Total in migration: 12,661 2012 Total in migration: 12,994 2036 Total net migration: 1,064 2035 Total net migration: 1,040 2034 Total net migration: 1,001 2033 Total net migration: 974 2032 Total net migration: 930 2031 Total net migration: 878 2030 Total net migration: 835 2029 Total net migration: 804 2028 Total net migration: 768 2027 Total net migration: 692 2026 Total net migration: 624 2025 Total net migration: 591 2024 Total net migration: 630 2023 Total net migration: 639 2022 Total net migration: 753 2021 Total net migration: 873 2020 Total net migration: 1,143 2019 Total net migration: 1,245 2018 Total net migration: 1,476 2017 Total net migration: 1,573 2016 Total net migration: 1,616 2015 Total net migration: 1,604 2014 Total net migration: 1,451 2013 Total net migration: 1,257 2012 Total net migration: 1,532 2036 Total out migration: 12,841 2035 Total out migration: 12,768 2034 Total out migration: 12,697 2033 Total out migration: 12,627 2032 Total out migration: 12,563 2031 Total out migration: 12,501 2030 Total out migration: 12,444 2029 Total out migration: 12,394 2028 Total out migration: 12,344 2027 Total out migration: 12,299 2026 Total out migration: 12,263 2025 Total out migration: 12,234 2024 Total out migration: 12,201 2023 Total out migration: 12,169 2022 Total out migration: 12,178 2021 Total out migration: 12,142 2020 Total out migration: 12,069 2019 Total out migration: 11,986 2018 Total out migration: 11,879 2017 Total out migration: 11,763 2016 Total out migration: 11,649 2015 Total out migration: 11,545 2014 Total out migration: 11,472 2013 Total out migration: 11,403 2012 Total out migration: 11,462 2036 Total in migration: 13,904 2035 Total in migration: 13,808 2034 Total in migration: 13,698 2033 Total in migration: 13,601 2032 Total in migration: 13,493 2031 Total in migration: 13,379 2030 Total in migration: 13,279 2029 Total in migration: 13,198 2028 Total in migration: 13,111 2027 Total in migration: 12,991 2026 Total in migration: 12,887 2025 Total in migration: 12,824 2024 Total in migration: 12,832 2023 Total in migration: 12,808 2022 Total in migration: 12,931 2021 Total in migration: 13,016 2020 Total in migration: 13,211 2019 Total in migration: 13,231 2018 Total in migration: 13,356 2017 Total in migration: 13,335 2016 Total in migration: 13,266 2015 Total in migration: 13,149 2014 Total in migration: 12,922 2013 Total in migration: 12,661 2012 Total in migration: 12,994
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2015.
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