City of MeltonPopulation forecast
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City of Melton

Births and deaths

In 2016 Melton East (future) PSP Area is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 5.72 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.33 in 2041.

The number of births in the City of Melton are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
City of MeltonYearChange between 2011 and 2041
Area20112041Number
City of Melton2.092.14+0.05
Brookfield2.392.11-0.28
Burnside2.442.27-0.17
Burnside Heights2.021.86-0.16
Caroline Springs2.132.09-0.03
Diggers Rest2.172.17-0.01
Eynesbury Township3.453.12-0.33
Hillside2.041.99-0.05
Kororoit PSP Area5.322.31-3.01
Kurunjang1.871.81-0.06
Melton2.472.34-0.13
Melton East (future) PSP Area5.782.33-3.45
Melton South (Existing)2.162.11-0.05
Melton West1.972.03+0.06
Northern Rural4.652.97-1.68
Rockbank Growth Area1.232.26+1.02
Rockbank North PSP Area5.782.33-3.45
Southern Rural/Mt Atkinson0.571.20+0.63
Taylors Hill2.061.98-0.07
Taylors Hill West PSP Area & Plumpton PSP Area5.322.31-3.01
Toolern PSP Remainder2.742.01-0.73
Toolern PSP Residential Area 12.742.01-0.73
Warrensbrook (future) PSP Area5.782.33-3.45

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, February 2017.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in the City of Melton is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the City of Melton, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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