City of KnoxPopulation forecast
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City of Knox

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in the City of Knox is 35-39 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2016 to 2021.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across City of Knox depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Migration assumptions influenced by:

  • Attraction of families (0-18 and 30-39 years), with some new development opportunities in parts of the City and the regeneration of other parts as areas continue to move through the suburb lifecycle, with older 'empty-nester' households moving out of the family home and providing a supply of older dwellings for families to move into, so regenerating the area
  • Loss of young adults (18-29 years) in the period 2011-2016, becoming a net gain from 2016 as higher density development within centres provides housing opportunities for young adults
  • Loss of empty nesters and retirees (50-69 years)
  • Increasing loss of older people through migration over the period (70+ years), as people age within the community and older retirees form an increasingly large proportion of the population. Migration of older persons is triggered by the wish to down-size, or to move into retirement complexes; there will also be a sizeable proportion of people of advanced years moving into aged-care
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 32 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: -172 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -218 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -266 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: -449 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: -697 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: -587 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: -344 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 148 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 592 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 798 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 679 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 175 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 417 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 702 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 636 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 310 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 288 0 2016 to 2021: 175 0 2016 to 2021: -35 0 2016 to 2021: -45 0 2016 to 2021: -160 0 2016 to 2021: -360 0 2016 to 2021: -642 0 2016 to 2021: -603 0 2016 to 2021: -252 0 2016 to 2021: 173 0 2016 to 2021: 780 0 2016 to 2021: 1,025 0 2016 to 2021: 826 0 2016 to 2021: 3 0 2016 to 2021: 335 0 2016 to 2021: 762 0 2016 to 2021: 779 0 2016 to 2021: 468 0 2016 to 2021: 379 Persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2016: 198 Persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2016: 13 Persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2016: 41 Persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2016: -47 Persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2016: -333 Persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2016: -642 Persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2016: -654 Persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2016: -453 Persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2016: -72 Persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2016: 385 Persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2016: 813 Persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2016: 678 Persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2016: -333 Persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2016: -443 Persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2016: 294 Persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2016: 408 Persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2016: 251 Persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2016: 197 Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 32 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: -172 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -218 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -266 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: -449 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: -697 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: -587 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: -344 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 148 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 592 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 798 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 679 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 175 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 417 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 702 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 636 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 310 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 288 0 2016 to 2021: 175 0 2016 to 2021: -35 0 2016 to 2021: -45 0 2016 to 2021: -160 0 2016 to 2021: -360 0 2016 to 2021: -642 0 2016 to 2021: -603 0 2016 to 2021: -252 0 2016 to 2021: 173 0 2016 to 2021: 780 0 2016 to 2021: 1,025 0 2016 to 2021: 826 0 2016 to 2021: 3 0 2016 to 2021: 335 0 2016 to 2021: 762 0 2016 to 2021: 779 0 2016 to 2021: 468 0 2016 to 2021: 379 Persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2016: 198 Persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2016: 13 Persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2016: 41 Persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2016: -47 Persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2016: -333 Persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2016: -642 Persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2016: -654 Persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2016: -453 Persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2016: -72 Persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2016: 385 Persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2016: 813 Persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2016: 678 Persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2016: -333 Persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2016: -443 Persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2016: 294 Persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2016: 408 Persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2016: 251 Persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2016: 197
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2014.
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