City of KnoxPopulation forecast
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City of Knox

Drivers of population change

The City of Knox is located in Melbourne’s middle to outer eastern suburbs, between 22 and 32 kilometres east of the Melbourne GPO. The area is predominantly residential but includes a major retail and commercial centre at Knox City in Wantirna South. The City also includes employment areas in Bayswater, Scoresby and Knoxfield. While settlement in Bayswater and Ferntree Gully dates from the 1870s, significant development of the area occurred in the post-war era as metropolitan Melbourne expanded eastwards. Housing development was initially focussed around the railway line, particularly in Bayswater and Ferntree Gully, but these ‘gaps’ were filled in during the post-war period. Greenfield development has continued in the southern areas of the City until very recently. The primary housing market role that the City of Knox has played during the post-war period was to provide home owning opportunities for families and prospective families from the inner and middle eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

The variety of periods of settlement in the City mean that various suburbs are at quite different periods in the suburb lifecycle. In the northern and eastern areas of the City such as Bayswater, Boronia and Ferntree Gully, the original settlers have passed on, resulting in a diversity of age groups. Areas such as Wantirna and Wantirna South by contrast are expected to experience some renewal over the next 15-20 years. There is pressure for further residential development catering for existing residents of Knox, residents of areas to the west (Cities of Whitehorse and Monash) and overseas. Some loss of population to developing areas further south east can be expected to continue over the forecast period.

Historical migration flows, City of Knox, 2006-2011
Historical migration flows, City of Knox, 2006-2011
'Overseas' refers to arrivals only.

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2014.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.

As described above, different areas within the City of Knox have different functions based on both era of development and amount of new housing opportunities. Boronia, Bayswater, Knoxfield, Rowville, Scoresby and The Basin are expected to attract some families and older adults and retirees, while losing relatively large numbers of young adults leaving home. Wantirna is expected to experience a large loss through migration in young adults leaving home to establish new households elsewhere. Ferntree Gully by contrast is expected to attract family households again as the area regenerates. The variety of function and role of the small areas in the City of Knox means that population outcomes differ significantly across the LGA.

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the LGA that will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures within the City over the forecast period. Wantirna South, Rowville and Ferntree Gully are expected to experience the largest amount of new residential development over the forecast period, followed by Boronia and Bayswater. This development will generally take the form of medium density development and development of former non-residential uses, however in the case of Rowville and Ferntree Gully, some small pockets of greenfield development will occur in the early forecast period. By contrast, The Basin and Upper Ferntree Gully are not expected to add significant numbers of new dwellings over the forecast period.

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