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City of KingstonPopulation forecast

Mordialloc Planning Area

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Mordialloc Planning Area indicate a 2.2% increase in population under working age, a 3.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 5.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Kingston is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Mordialloc Planning Area - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 48535.89116.09265.7+73
5 to 99766.79966.51,0116.2+35
10 to 141,1147.61,1007.21,0946.7-20
15 to 199566.51,0637.01,0306.3+74
20 to 246754.68175.38575.3+182
25 to 297054.87304.88185.0+113
30 to 349336.49206.09605.9+27
35 to 391,0797.41,1217.31,1016.8+22
40 to 441,1207.61,1767.71,1527.1+32
45 to 491,2908.81,1727.71,1757.2-115
50 to 541,0877.41,1897.81,1026.8+15
55 to 598986.11,0126.61,0326.3+134
60 to 648055.58435.59495.8+144
65 to 696014.16854.58625.3+261
70 to 744833.35453.67354.5+252
75 to 793632.54052.65743.5+211
80 to 842992.02961.94362.7+137
85 and over4202.93132.04522.8+32
Total persons14,657100.015,296100.016,266100.0+1,609
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Mordialloc Planning Area was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 8.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 20 to 24, which is expected to increase by 142 and account for 5.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 50 to 54 years, with a total of 1,189 persons.

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