Kempsey ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Kempsey Shire

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Kempsey Shire is 50-54 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2026 to 2031.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Kempsey Shire depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • The migration profile for Kempsey Shire in the future is expected to change in volume and absolute numbers of new residents to the area but not the age group breakdown, this remains relatively similar
  • A continued gain of young and established families to the area – adults aged 30-39 years with children aged 0-9 years
  • Loss of young adults aged 15-24 years who are leaving the area in search of education and employment opportunities elsewhere
  • There is another housing market in Kempsey and that is the gain of mature adults, empty nesters, those who are downsizing after children leave home and looking for a “sea change” or “tree change” , that is – lifestyle opportunities.
  • Those aged 40-64 years are visibly an increase in terms of net migration. People aged 65+ do not change their net migration profile as evidently
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 79 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: -15 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -123 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -49 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: -2 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 182 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 233 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: 287 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 229 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 190 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 154 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 157 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: -18 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: -188 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: -400 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 60 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 184 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 170 Persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2021: 46 Persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2021: 2 Persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2021: -87 Persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2021: -61 Persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2021: -13 Persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2021: 134 Persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2021: 177 Persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2021: 254 Persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2021: 180 Persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2021: 166 Persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2021: 172 Persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2021: 51 Persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2021: -78 Persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2021: -216 Persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2021: -401 Persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2021: 66 Persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2021: 179 Persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2021: 132 Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 79 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: -15 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -123 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -49 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: -2 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 182 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 233 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: 287 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 229 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 190 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 154 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 157 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: -18 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: -188 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: -400 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 60 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 184 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 170 Persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2021: 46 Persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2021: 2 Persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2021: -87 Persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2021: -61 Persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2021: -13 Persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2021: 134 Persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2021: 177 Persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2021: 254 Persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2021: 180 Persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2021: 166 Persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2021: 172 Persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2021: 51 Persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2021: -78 Persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2021: -216 Persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2021: -401 Persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2021: 66 Persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2021: 179 Persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2021: 132
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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