Greater Taree City CouncilPopulation forecast
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Greater Taree City

Drivers of population change

Greater Taree City is located on the mid north coast of New South Wales. The area comprises the major urban centre of Taree, the traditional rural service centre of Wingham and several growing coastal townships and a large rural hinterland. Early development in the area dates from the 1820s when timber getting and timber mills were established. Wingham was established in the 1840s as a river port for the cedar trade. The opening of the railway in 1913 saw Taree overtake Wingham as the major centre in the district. Significant growth has occurred in the post war era both in Taree as well as the coastal townships. The increase in availability of private motor transport has resulted in significant demand for residential development in coastal areas away from traditional rail-based inland townships. This has been consistent with coastal areas around Australia over this period. The primary housing market role that Greater Taree has played during the post-war period was to provide housing opportunities for new households forming within Greater Taree as well as attracting retirees from areas further south, in particular metropolitan Sydney. Greater Taree also experiences net migration loss to areas such as Newcastle (education and 'bright lights') and to areas further north of the NSW Coast and South-East Queensland (economic opportunity).

The importance of Greater Taree as a destination for retirees from areas further south is expected to continue over the forecast period. As a result of this there is some pressure for residential expansion within Greater Taree from both existing residents and from people moving to the area.

It is assumed that this pattern will continue into the future, driving development on the outskirts of Taree and in the coastal townships. Another major development that will have a significant impact on population change in the City of Greater Taree is the development of the new town, Brimbin. While it is unlikely to be completed by 2036, it is likely to be competing with Wingham as the second largest centre of the City by this period.

Historical migration flows, Greater Taree City, 2006-2011
Historical migration flows, Greater Taree City, 2006-2011
'Overseas' refers to arrivals only.

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2012.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.

The appeal of the area is a reflection of the natural attractiveness of the area, the climate and the significant amount of residential housing opportunities close to the coast.

With the variety of residential and rural locations, areas within the City of Greater Taree have developed different roles within the housing market. The traditional centres of Taree, Wingham and Cundletown attract some families, but lose significant numbers of young adults to areas outside of the LGA. Coastal areas attract a large share of retirees, as well as some younger adults. The rural areas attract families, fewer retirees and lose significant numbers of young adults as they seek employment and educational opportunities in larger centres. The variety of function and role of the small areas in Greater Taree City means that population outcomes differ significantly across the LGA.

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the LGA which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures within Greater Taree over the next five to ten years. Significant new 'greenfield' opportunities have been identified in Brimbin, Hallidays Point, Old Bar-Wallabi and Taree while the rural areas are expected to add relatively moderate numbers of new dwellings over the forecast period.

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