Greater Hume ShirePopulation forecast
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Greater Hume Shire

Drivers of population change

Development history

Greater Hume Shire is located in the southern New South Wales, about 370 kilometres north of Melbourne, and 520 kilometres southwest of Sydney. Greater Hume Shire is a predominantly rural area, with settlement based in the townships of Culcairn, Henty, Holbrook, Jindera and Walla Walla. Rural land is used largely for agriculture and horticulture, primarily producing wool, wheat and other grains, lucerne, cattle and sheep.

The original inhabitants of the Greater Hume Shire were the Wiradjuri Aboriginal people. European settlement dates from the late 1830s, with land used mainly grazing. The town of Holbrook (then know as Ten Mile Creek) was established in 1936. The construction of the railway line between Wagga Wagga to Albury in 1878 led to the establishment of towns at Henty and Culcairn. Expansion continued past the post-war years, with soldier settlements bringing a wave of new residents to the shire. The population varied during the early 20th century due to fluctuating environmental and economic conditions. The population was estimated at 11,000 in 1947, and by 1991 in had declined to around 9,800. It once more increased to 10,000 in 2006, and continued to grow to 10,100 in 2011.

Migration patterns

Most recent residential growth has been focused in the southern part of the Shire within areas that are of commuting distance of Albury/Wodonga. The primary housing market role that Greater Hume Shire has played during the post-war period was to attract families and retirees from areas further north, in particular from metropolitan Sydney and the Illawarra.

The role of Greater Hume Shire as a destination for families and retirees is expected to continue over the forecast period. As a result of this, there is ongoing need for residential expansion within the Shire from both existing residents and from people moving to the area. It is assumed that a number of these patterns will continue into the future, most notably flows into the area from Sydney and the Illawarra and losses of young people to Albury.

Historical migration flows, Greater Hume Shire, 2006-2011
Historical migration flows, Greater Hume Shire, 2006-2011
'Overseas' refers to arrivals only.

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, August 2014.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.

Housing role and function

With the contrast of residential demand across the LGA, different areas within Greater Hume Shire have developed different roles within the housing market. Jindera & District tends to predominantly attract younger family households while Holbrook & District and Culcairn & District attract lower numbers of retirees and families. The function and role of these areas in Greater Hume Shire means that population outcomes differ across the LGA.

Housing supply

The supply of residential property within the LGA will also have an influence in structuring different population and household futures within Greater Hume Shire over the next five to ten years. New residential opportunities are available on the outskirts of most townships, with Jindera & District expected to have the highest number of new dwellings. New development in Culcairn & District and Holbrook & District are based predominantly on residual residential land and infill of vacant lots.

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