Gosford City CouncilPopulation forecast
Skip to content

In 2016 Broken Bay is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 3.46 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 3.27 in 2036.

The number of births in Gosford City are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Gosford CityYearChange between 2011 and 2036
Area20112036Number
Gosford City2.001.97-0.03
Avoca Beach - Picketts Valley - Copacabana - MacMasters Beach1.891.87-0.02
Broken Bay3.593.27-0.32
Mountains2.442.42-0.02
East Gosford - Point Frederick - Springfield1.851.80-0.05
Erina - Green Point2.352.33-0.02
Ettalong Beach - Booker Bay2.782.66-0.12
Forresters Beach - Wamberal - Terrigal - North Avoca1.801.79-0.01
Gosford - West Gosford1.751.81+0.06
Holgate - Matcham - Erina Heights2.622.40-0.22
Kariong2.102.06-0.04
Kincumber2.322.27-0.05
Kincumber South - Bensville - Empire Bay1.611.54-0.07
Lisarow - Mount Elliot1.911.89-0.03
Narara - Niagara Park1.771.75-0.02
North Gosford - Wyoming1.971.89-0.09
Point Clare - Tascott - Koolewong2.212.15-0.06
Umina Beach1.941.90-0.04
Woy Woy - Blackwall 2.342.25-0.09
Yattalunga - Saratoga - Davistown2.052.00-0.05

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2014.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Gosford City is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Gosford City, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

v16.07.05-1.0.8