Georges River CouncilPopulation forecast
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Georges River Council area

Births and deaths

In 2016 Connells Point - Kyle Bay is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 3.01 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 3.00 in 2036.

The number of births in the Georges River Council area are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Georges River Council areaYearChange between 2011 and 2036
Area20112036Number
Georges River Council area1.841.76-0.08
Allawah1.751.60-0.15
Beverley Park - Ramsgate2.752.62-0.13
Beverly Hills - Narwee1.971.96-0.01
Blakehurst2.462.38-0.08
Carlton2.061.81-0.26
Connells Point - Kyle Bay3.143.00-0.14
Hurstville City Centre1.231.36+0.13
Hurstville Grove1.902.00+0.09
Hurstville Remainder1.731.69-0.04
Kingsgrove2.102.03-0.07
Kogarah1.651.72+0.07
Kogarah Bay - Carss Park3.322.99-0.32
Lugarno2.202.05-0.15
Mortdale1.671.70+0.03
Oatley2.452.44-0.01
Peakhurst1.841.72-0.12
Peakhurst Heights2.292.36+0.07
Penshurst1.691.72+0.03
Riverwood1.751.73-0.02
Sans Souci2.072.31+0.24
South Hurstville1.741.72-0.02

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, February 2017.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in the Georges River Council area is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the Georges River Council area, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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