Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Armstrong Creek will increase by an average of 382 dwellings per annum to 9,166 in 2036.
The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).
Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.
.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in the City of Greater Geelong. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.
List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:
Dwelling counts for the period 2011 to 2016 have been adjusted to reflect Census results. Assumptions concerning development over the forecast period include:
- Armstrong Creek East Precinct - Balance - 990 dwellings (2027-2036)
- Armstrong Creek Retirement Village - 250 dwellings (2019-2030)
- Armstrong Creek Town Centre - 1,040 dwellings (2021-2036)
- Warralily - 761 dwellings (2012-2022)
- Warralily Coast - 1,297 dwellings (2014-2028)
- Warralily Promenade - 1,471 dwellings (2014-2031)
- Horseshoe Bend Precinct - Armstrong Creek - 410 dwellings (2027-2036)
- Ashbury - 1,130 dwellings (2017-2034)
- Armstrong Waters - 400 dwellings (2018-2029)
- Horizon Cove - 79 dwellings (2015-2019)
- Villawood-Draper - 398 dwellings (2019-2030)
- Lake Road West - 261 dwellings (2022-2031)
- Horseshoe Bend-Boundary - 410 dwellings (2022-2036)
- No infill development assumed
- No centres development assumed