City of Greater GeelongPopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Armstrong Creek

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Armstrong Creek will increase by an average of 382 dwellings per annum to 9,166 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in the City of Greater Geelong. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

Dwelling counts for the period 2011 to 2016 have been adjusted to reflect Census results. Assumptions concerning development over the forecast period include:

  • Armstrong Creek East Precinct - Balance - 990 dwellings (2027-2036)
  • Armstrong Creek Retirement Village - 250 dwellings (2019-2030)
  • Armstrong Creek Town Centre - 1,040 dwellings (2021-2036)
  • Warralily - 761 dwellings (2012-2022)
  • Warralily Coast - 1,297 dwellings (2014-2028)
  • Warralily Promenade - 1,471 dwellings (2014-2031)
  • Horseshoe Bend Precinct - Armstrong Creek - 410 dwellings (2027-2036)
  • Ashbury - 1,130 dwellings (2017-2034)
  • Armstrong Waters - 400 dwellings (2018-2029)
  • Horizon Cove - 79 dwellings (2015-2019)
  • Villawood-Draper - 398 dwellings (2019-2030)
  • Lake Road West - 261 dwellings (2022-2031)
  • Horseshoe Bend-Boundary - 410 dwellings (2022-2036)
  • No infill development assumed
  • No centres development assumed
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 9,166 2035 Total dwellings: 8,826 2034 Total dwellings: 8,496 2033 Total dwellings: 8,156 2032 Total dwellings: 7,816 2031 Total dwellings: 7,476 2030 Total dwellings: 7,104 2029 Total dwellings: 6,716 2028 Total dwellings: 6,306 2027 Total dwellings: 5,916 2026 Total dwellings: 5,501 2025 Total dwellings: 5,101 2024 Total dwellings: 4,671 2023 Total dwellings: 4,234 2022 Total dwellings: 3,824 2021 Total dwellings: 3,404 2020 Total dwellings: 3,014 2019 Total dwellings: 2,633 2018 Total dwellings: 2,243 2017 Total dwellings: 1,890 2036 Total dwellings: 9,166 2035 Total dwellings: 8,826 2034 Total dwellings: 8,496 2033 Total dwellings: 8,156 2032 Total dwellings: 7,816 2031 Total dwellings: 7,476 2030 Total dwellings: 7,104 2029 Total dwellings: 6,716 2028 Total dwellings: 6,306 2027 Total dwellings: 5,916 2026 Total dwellings: 5,501 2025 Total dwellings: 5,101 2024 Total dwellings: 4,671 2023 Total dwellings: 4,234 2022 Total dwellings: 3,824 2021 Total dwellings: 3,404 2020 Total dwellings: 3,014 2019 Total dwellings: 2,633 2018 Total dwellings: 2,243 2017 Total dwellings: 1,890 2036 Forecast development: 340 2035 Forecast development: 330 2034 Forecast development: 340 2033 Forecast development: 340 2032 Forecast development: 340 2031 Forecast development: 372 2030 Forecast development: 388 2029 Forecast development: 410 2028 Forecast development: 390 2027 Forecast development: 415 2026 Forecast development: 400 2025 Forecast development: 430 2024 Forecast development: 437 2023 Forecast development: 410 2022 Forecast development: 420 2021 Forecast development: 390 2020 Forecast development: 381 2019 Forecast development: 390 2018 Forecast development: 353 2017 Forecast development: 360
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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