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City of Greater GeelongPopulation forecast

Armstrong Creek

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Armstrong Creek indicate a 49.8% increase in population under working age, a 85.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 59.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Greater Geelong is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Armstrong Creek - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,24611.11,6569.32,0567.5+809
5 to 99868.81,5418.72,0237.4+1,037
10 to 146956.21,1876.71,8226.7+1,127
15 to 195324.71,0335.81,7426.4+1,210
20 to 248607.71,3697.71,9797.2+1,119
25 to 291,26911.31,86010.52,2268.1+957
30 to 341,45212.91,99211.22,3888.7+936
35 to 391,17810.51,77410.02,2518.2+1,072
40 to 447546.71,3107.41,8496.8+1,096
45 to 495504.99665.41,6576.1+1,107
50 to 543993.67424.21,4685.4+1,069
55 to 593262.95633.21,2914.7+965
60 to 642882.64872.71,1044.0+816
65 to 692492.24282.49553.5+706
70 to 742021.83522.08343.1+632
75 to 79800.71971.16442.4+564
80 to 84610.51100.64491.6+388
85 and over950.91851.05772.1+482
Total persons11,220100.017,752100.027,315100.0+16,095
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), January 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Armstrong Creek was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 12.9% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 595 and account for 10.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 1,992 persons.

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