East Gippsland ShirePopulation forecast
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Bairnsdale

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Bairnsdale will increase by an average of 41 dwellings per annum to 4,639 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in East Gippsland Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2011-16 dwelling additions are based on building approvals, lagged by 12-18 months. Specific assumptions from 2012 onwards:

  • O'Brien Street Subdivision - 11 dwellings (2013-2016)
  • Shannon Waters - 750 dwellings (2013-2036)
  • Rivers Edge Estate - 27 dwellings (2016-2023)
  • Low-moderate level of infill development (6-12 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 4,639 2035 Total dwellings: 4,623 2034 Total dwellings: 4,605 2033 Total dwellings: 4,575 2032 Total dwellings: 4,535 2031 Total dwellings: 4,492 2030 Total dwellings: 4,445 2029 Total dwellings: 4,398 2028 Total dwellings: 4,351 2027 Total dwellings: 4,304 2026 Total dwellings: 4,257 2025 Total dwellings: 4,210 2024 Total dwellings: 4,163 2023 Total dwellings: 4,116 2022 Total dwellings: 4,067 2021 Total dwellings: 4,018 2020 Total dwellings: 3,969 2019 Total dwellings: 3,919 2018 Total dwellings: 3,869 2017 Total dwellings: 3,819 2016 Total dwellings: 3,772 2015 Total dwellings: 3,725 2014 Total dwellings: 3,677 2013 Total dwellings: 3,647 2012 Total dwellings: 3,632 2036 Total dwellings: 4,639 2035 Total dwellings: 4,623 2034 Total dwellings: 4,605 2033 Total dwellings: 4,575 2032 Total dwellings: 4,535 2031 Total dwellings: 4,492 2030 Total dwellings: 4,445 2029 Total dwellings: 4,398 2028 Total dwellings: 4,351 2027 Total dwellings: 4,304 2026 Total dwellings: 4,257 2025 Total dwellings: 4,210 2024 Total dwellings: 4,163 2023 Total dwellings: 4,116 2022 Total dwellings: 4,067 2021 Total dwellings: 4,018 2020 Total dwellings: 3,969 2019 Total dwellings: 3,919 2018 Total dwellings: 3,869 2017 Total dwellings: 3,819 2016 Total dwellings: 3,772 2015 Total dwellings: 3,725 2014 Total dwellings: 3,677 2013 Total dwellings: 3,647 2012 Total dwellings: 3,632 2036 Forecast development: 16 2035 Forecast development: 18 2034 Forecast development: 30 2033 Forecast development: 40 2032 Forecast development: 43 2031 Forecast development: 47 2030 Forecast development: 47 2029 Forecast development: 47 2028 Forecast development: 47 2027 Forecast development: 47 2026 Forecast development: 47 2025 Forecast development: 47 2024 Forecast development: 47 2023 Forecast development: 49 2022 Forecast development: 49 2021 Forecast development: 49 2020 Forecast development: 50 2019 Forecast development: 50 2018 Forecast development: 50 2017 Forecast development: 47 2016 Forecast development: 47 2015 Forecast development: 48 2014 Forecast development: 30 2013 Forecast development: 15 2012 Forecast development: 8
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, August 2016.
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