Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Bairnsdale will increase by an average of 41 dwellings per annum to 4,639 in 2036.
The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).
Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.
.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in East Gippsland Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.
List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:
2011-16 dwelling additions are based on building approvals, lagged by 12-18 months. Specific assumptions from 2012 onwards:
- O'Brien Street Subdivision - 11 dwellings (2013-2016)
- Shannon Waters - 750 dwellings (2013-2036)
- Rivers Edge Estate - 27 dwellings (2016-2023)
- Low-moderate level of infill development (6-12 dwellings per annum)