City of CaseyPopulation forecast
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City of Casey

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in the City of Casey is 25-29 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2016 to 2021.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across City of Casey depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Migration assumptions influenced by:

  • Substantial new housing opportunities in the major growth areas, namely Berwick (South), Botanic Ridge-Junction Village, Cranbourne North, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne West, Clyde North and the Clyde Growth Area which are expected to attract predominantly young couples, and young and established families
  • Gain in young adults (18-24 years) in established areas such as Doveton-Eumemmerring, Hallam (both suburbs having a diversity of housing stock) and Hampton Park
  • Gain in mature and older families in the rural residential areas of the City such as Casey Foothills and Casey Coast
  • Loss of empty nesters and early retirees (55-69 years), increasing over the period as households that moved in during earlier periods of the City's development age and become empty nester households, with a proportion accessing lifestyle options elsewhere
  • Small gain of older persons (70+ years) in established areas, becoming a small loss in the later period

Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 38 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: 37 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -130 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -258 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: -661 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: -680 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: -707 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: -589 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 74 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 815 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 1,827 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 4,381 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 5,360 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 3,548 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 728 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 249 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 1,782 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 3,314 0 2016 to 2021: 182 0 2016 to 2021: 193 0 2016 to 2021: 77 0 2016 to 2021: -64 0 2016 to 2021: -328 0 2016 to 2021: -397 0 2016 to 2021: -564 0 2016 to 2021: -241 0 2016 to 2021: 450 0 2016 to 2021: 1,324 0 2016 to 2021: 2,615 0 2016 to 2021: 4,989 0 2016 to 2021: 5,421 0 2016 to 2021: 3,249 0 2016 to 2021: 1,263 0 2016 to 2021: 1,115 0 2016 to 2021: 2,776 0 2016 to 2021: 3,919 Persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2016: 337 Persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2016: 278 Persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2016: 223 Persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2016: 133 Persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2016: -164 Persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2016: -171 Persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2016: -261 Persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2016: -137 Persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2016: 580 Persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2016: 724 Persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2016: 2,180 Persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2016: 3,910 Persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2016: 4,505 Persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2016: 2,326 Persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2016: 682 Persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2016: 1,342 Persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2016: 2,553 Persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2016: 3,228 Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 38 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: 37 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -130 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -258 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: -661 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: -680 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: -707 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: -589 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 74 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 815 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 1,827 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 4,381 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 5,360 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 3,548 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 728 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 249 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 1,782 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 3,314 0 2016 to 2021: 182 0 2016 to 2021: 193 0 2016 to 2021: 77 0 2016 to 2021: -64 0 2016 to 2021: -328 0 2016 to 2021: -397 0 2016 to 2021: -564 0 2016 to 2021: -241 0 2016 to 2021: 450 0 2016 to 2021: 1,324 0 2016 to 2021: 2,615 0 2016 to 2021: 4,989 0 2016 to 2021: 5,421 0 2016 to 2021: 3,249 0 2016 to 2021: 1,263 0 2016 to 2021: 1,115 0 2016 to 2021: 2,776 0 2016 to 2021: 3,919 Persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2016: 337 Persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2016: 278 Persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2016: 223 Persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2016: 133 Persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2016: -164 Persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2016: -171 Persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2016: -261 Persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2016: -137 Persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2016: 580 Persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2016: 724 Persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2016: 2,180 Persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2016: 3,910 Persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2016: 4,505 Persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2016: 2,326 Persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2016: 682 Persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2016: 1,342 Persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2016: 2,553 Persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2016: 3,228
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2016.
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