Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Cardinia Shire

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Cardinia Shire will increase by an average of 1,574 dwellings per annum to 67,127 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Cardinia Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Forecast residential development, 2016 to 2036
Cardinia ShireChange in dwellings between 2016 and 2036
Areanumber%
Cardinia Shire+31,480+88.3
Beaconsfield Precinct+424+28.8
Beaconsfield Upper & District+82+5.6
Bunyip+546+58.9
Cardinia Road Employment+2,000+60240.8
Cardinia Road Precinct+4,108+66.9
Cockatoo - Nangana+162+9.9
Emerald - Clematis - Avonsleigh - Menzies Creek+244+9.4
Garfield+545+79.5
Gembrook+188+21.6
Koo Wee Rup+758+55.9
Lang Lang+501+77.5
Nar Nar Goon - Tynong area+175+31.8
Northern Rural+244+18.4
Officer Precinct+11,176+751.4
Pakenham Balance+40+10.1
Pakenham East Precinct+5,520+15479.5
Pakenham Precinct+4,607+35.9
Southern Rural+160+13.3
Pakenham area+11,848+66.4
Growth Area Subregion+27,875+124.6
Hills Subregion+920+11.6
Rural (South and East) Subregion+2,685+50.0

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 67,127 2035 Total dwellings: 65,894 2034 Total dwellings: 64,612 2033 Total dwellings: 63,281 2032 Total dwellings: 61,921 2031 Total dwellings: 60,498 2030 Total dwellings: 59,041 2029 Total dwellings: 57,510 2028 Total dwellings: 55,935 2027 Total dwellings: 54,341 2026 Total dwellings: 52,739 2025 Total dwellings: 51,079 2024 Total dwellings: 49,377 2023 Total dwellings: 47,675 2022 Total dwellings: 45,935 2021 Total dwellings: 44,131 2020 Total dwellings: 42,331 2019 Total dwellings: 40,554 2018 Total dwellings: 38,825 2017 Total dwellings: 37,192 2036 Total dwellings: 67,127 2035 Total dwellings: 65,894 2034 Total dwellings: 64,612 2033 Total dwellings: 63,281 2032 Total dwellings: 61,921 2031 Total dwellings: 60,498 2030 Total dwellings: 59,041 2029 Total dwellings: 57,510 2028 Total dwellings: 55,935 2027 Total dwellings: 54,341 2026 Total dwellings: 52,739 2025 Total dwellings: 51,079 2024 Total dwellings: 49,377 2023 Total dwellings: 47,675 2022 Total dwellings: 45,935 2021 Total dwellings: 44,131 2020 Total dwellings: 42,331 2019 Total dwellings: 40,554 2018 Total dwellings: 38,825 2017 Total dwellings: 37,192 2036 Forecast development: 1,233 2035 Forecast development: 1,282 2034 Forecast development: 1,331 2033 Forecast development: 1,360 2032 Forecast development: 1,423 2031 Forecast development: 1,457 2030 Forecast development: 1,531 2029 Forecast development: 1,575 2028 Forecast development: 1,594 2027 Forecast development: 1,602 2026 Forecast development: 1,660 2025 Forecast development: 1,702 2024 Forecast development: 1,702 2023 Forecast development: 1,740 2022 Forecast development: 1,804 2021 Forecast development: 1,800 2020 Forecast development: 1,777 2019 Forecast development: 1,729 2018 Forecast development: 1,633 2017 Forecast development: 1,545
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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