Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Cardinia Shire

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Cardinia Shire will increase by an average of 1,574 dwellings per annum to 64,326 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Cardinia Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Forecast residential development, 2016 to 2036
Cardinia ShireChange in dwellings between 2016 and 2036
Areanumber%
Cardinia Shire+31,480+95.8
Beaconsfield Precinct+424+28.8
Beaconsfield Upper & District+82+5.6
Bunyip+546+58.9
Cardinia Road Employment+2,000+60240.8
Cardinia Road Precinct+4,108+66.9
Cockatoo - Nangana+162+9.9
Emerald - Clematis - Avonsleigh - Menzies Creek+244+9.4
Garfield+545+79.5
Gembrook+188+21.6
Koo Wee Rup+758+55.9
Lang Lang+501+77.5
Nar Nar Goon - Tynong area+175+31.8
Northern Rural+244+18.4
Officer Precinct+11,176+751.4
Pakenham Balance+40+10.1
Pakenham East Precinct+5,520+15479.5
Pakenham Precinct+4,607+45.9
Southern Rural+160+13.3
Pakenham area+11,848+78.8
Growth Area Subregion+27,875+142.4
Hills Subregion+920+11.6
Rural (South and East) Subregion+2,685+50.0

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2017.

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 64,326 2035 Total dwellings: 63,093 2034 Total dwellings: 61,811 2033 Total dwellings: 60,480 2032 Total dwellings: 59,120 2031 Total dwellings: 57,697 2030 Total dwellings: 56,240 2029 Total dwellings: 54,709 2028 Total dwellings: 53,134 2027 Total dwellings: 51,540 2026 Total dwellings: 49,938 2025 Total dwellings: 48,278 2024 Total dwellings: 46,576 2023 Total dwellings: 44,874 2022 Total dwellings: 43,134 2021 Total dwellings: 41,330 2020 Total dwellings: 39,530 2019 Total dwellings: 37,753 2018 Total dwellings: 36,024 2017 Total dwellings: 34,391 2036 Total dwellings: 64,326 2035 Total dwellings: 63,093 2034 Total dwellings: 61,811 2033 Total dwellings: 60,480 2032 Total dwellings: 59,120 2031 Total dwellings: 57,697 2030 Total dwellings: 56,240 2029 Total dwellings: 54,709 2028 Total dwellings: 53,134 2027 Total dwellings: 51,540 2026 Total dwellings: 49,938 2025 Total dwellings: 48,278 2024 Total dwellings: 46,576 2023 Total dwellings: 44,874 2022 Total dwellings: 43,134 2021 Total dwellings: 41,330 2020 Total dwellings: 39,530 2019 Total dwellings: 37,753 2018 Total dwellings: 36,024 2017 Total dwellings: 34,391 2036 Forecast development: 1,233 2035 Forecast development: 1,282 2034 Forecast development: 1,331 2033 Forecast development: 1,360 2032 Forecast development: 1,423 2031 Forecast development: 1,457 2030 Forecast development: 1,531 2029 Forecast development: 1,575 2028 Forecast development: 1,594 2027 Forecast development: 1,602 2026 Forecast development: 1,660 2025 Forecast development: 1,702 2024 Forecast development: 1,702 2023 Forecast development: 1,740 2022 Forecast development: 1,804 2021 Forecast development: 1,800 2020 Forecast development: 1,777 2019 Forecast development: 1,729 2018 Forecast development: 1,633 2017 Forecast development: 1,545
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
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