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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Rural (South and East) Subregion

Population, households and dwellings

The number of dwellings in Rural (South and East) Subregion is forecast to grow from 6,261 in 2021 to 9,023 in 2041, with the average household size falling from 2.77 to 2.74 by 2041.

This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in Cardinia Shire. The period 2021 to 2026, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes.

It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population.

Forecast population, households and dwellings
Rural (South and East) SubregionForecast year
Summary20212026203120362041
Population16,53418,88820,71522,39323,617
Change in population (5yrs)--2,3541,8261,6791,224
Average annual change--2.70%1.86%1.57%1.07%
Households5,9186,7877,4458,0678,553
Average household size2.772.762.762.752.74
Population in non private dwellings165177189207207
Dwellings6,2617,1707,8618,5159,023
Dwelling occupancy rate94.5294.6694.7194.7494.79
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the total population of Rural (South and East) Subregion was estimated to be 16,534 people. It is expected to increase by over 4,181 people to 20,715 by 2026, at an average annual growth rate of 4.61%. This is based on an increase of over 1,527 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household falling from 2.77 to 2.76 by 2026.

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