Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Cardinia Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Cardinia Shire indicate a 59.8% increase in population under working age, a 64.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 46.7% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Cardinia Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 7,3288.211,3738.414,6848.3+7,356
5 to 9 6,6867.510,9468.114,2198.1+7,533
10 to 14 6,1636.99,9337.313,1367.5+6,973
15 to 19 6,1026.88,8066.511,9646.8+5,862
20 to 24 6,0286.88,9496.611,7796.7+5,752
25 to 29 6,3927.210,0927.412,4257.1+6,033
30 to 34 6,6307.410,4107.712,9427.4+6,312
35 to 39 5,9416.710,0237.412,8437.3+6,902
40 to 44 6,2467.09,1906.812,0696.9+5,824
45 to 49 6,3237.18,0075.910,6986.1+4,376
50 to 54 5,7096.47,3915.59,4015.3+3,692
55 to 59 5,0725.76,9035.18,2174.7+3,146
60 to 64 4,1454.66,1884.67,5574.3+3,412
65 to 69 3,7424.25,3013.96,7973.9+3,055
70 to 74 2,7263.14,3033.25,9253.4+3,199
75 to 79 1,8592.13,5232.64,8132.7+2,954
80 to 84 1,1081.22,2431.73,2771.9+2,168
85 and over1,0781.21,8911.43,1791.8+2,101
Total persons89,279100.0135,472100.0175,929100.0+86,650

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 3,179 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 3,277 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 4,813 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 5,925 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 6,797 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 7,557 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 8,217 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 9,401 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 10,698 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 12,069 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 12,843 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 12,942 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 12,425 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 11,779 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 11,964 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 13,136 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 14,219 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 14,684 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 1,891 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 2,243 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 3,523 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 4,303 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 5,301 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 6,188 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 6,903 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 7,391 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 8,007 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 9,190 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 10,023 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 10,410 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 10,092 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 8,949 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 8,806 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 9,933 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 10,946 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 11,373 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 1,078 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 1,108 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 1,859 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 2,726 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 3,742 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 4,145 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 5,072 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 5,709 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 6,323 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 6,246 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 5,941 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 6,630 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 6,392 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 6,028 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 6,102 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 6,163 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 6,686 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 7,328
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 1,288 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 1,034 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 1,290 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 1,622 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 1,496 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: 1,370 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: 1,315 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 2,010 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 2,692 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 2,879 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 2,821 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 2,532 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 2,333 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 2,830 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: 3,158 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 3,203 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 3,274 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 3,312 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 813 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 1,135 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 1,664 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 1,577 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 1,559 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 2,042 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 1,831 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 1,682 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 1,684 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 2,945 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 4,082 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 3,780 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 3,700 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 2,922 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 2,704 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 3,770 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 4,259 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 4,044
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Cardinia Shire was ages 0 to 4 , which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 5 to 9 , which is expected to increase by 4,259 and account for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 11,373 persons.

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