Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Cardinia Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Cardinia Shire indicate a 51.0% increase in population under working age, a 60.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 44.3% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Cardinia Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 8,3938.612,1358.415,5358.4+7,142
5 to 9 7,6217.811,6888.114,9908.1+7,369
10 to 14 6,8457.010,6907.413,8187.5+6,973
15 to 19 6,4636.69,5096.612,6146.8+6,151
20 to 24 6,4476.69,6186.712,5046.7+6,057
25 to 29 7,1127.310,7037.413,1717.1+6,059
30 to 34 7,5657.711,0417.713,6647.4+6,099
35 to 39 6,7386.910,6607.413,4957.3+6,757
40 to 44 6,8307.09,8416.812,6616.8+5,830
45 to 49 6,6956.98,6256.011,2596.1+4,563
50 to 54 5,9846.17,9175.59,9585.4+3,974
55 to 59 5,3365.57,3015.18,7514.7+3,415
60 to 64 4,3914.56,5154.58,0344.3+3,643
65 to 69 3,9844.15,5643.97,1283.8+3,144
70 to 74 2,9443.04,5003.16,1493.3+3,206
75 to 79 1,9242.03,6862.64,9702.7+3,046
80 to 84 1,1791.22,3181.63,3361.8+2,157
85 and over1,1781.21,9421.33,3501.8+2,172
Total persons97,629100.0144,254100.0185,387100.0+87,758

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 3,350 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 3,336 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 4,970 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 6,149 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 7,128 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 8,034 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 8,751 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 9,958 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 11,259 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 12,661 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 13,495 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 13,664 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 13,171 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 12,504 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 12,614 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 13,818 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 14,990 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 15,535 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 1,942 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 2,318 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 3,686 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 4,500 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 5,564 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 6,515 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 7,301 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 7,917 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 8,625 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 9,841 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 10,660 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 11,041 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 10,703 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 9,618 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 9,509 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 10,690 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 11,688 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 12,135 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 1,178 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 1,179 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 1,924 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 2,944 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 3,984 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 4,391 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 5,336 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 5,984 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 6,695 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 6,830 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 6,738 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 7,565 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 7,112 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 6,447 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 6,463 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 6,845 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 7,621 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 8,393
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 1,407 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 1,018 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 1,284 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 1,649 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 1,565 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: 1,519 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: 1,449 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 2,040 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 2,634 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 2,819 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 2,835 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 2,623 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 2,469 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 2,886 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: 3,105 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 3,128 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 3,302 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 3,400 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 765 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 1,139 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 1,762 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 1,556 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 1,580 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 2,124 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 1,965 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 1,933 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 1,930 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 3,011 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 3,922 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 3,476 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 3,591 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 3,171 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 3,046 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 3,845 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 4,067 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 3,742
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Cardinia Shire was ages 0 to 4 , which accounted for 8.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 5 to 9 , which is expected to increase by 4,067 and account for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 12,135 persons.

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