Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Cardinia Shire

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Cardinia Shire is 25-29 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2021 to 2026.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Cardinia Shire depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Substantial new housing opportunities across the Shire, especially in the growth corridor areas (Pakenham, Officer and to a lesser extent Beaconsfield), which are expected to attract predominantly young couples, young and maturing families
  • The loss of young adults leaving home is expected in many areas, as the trend of young adults leaving rural areas to find employment and education opportunities elsewhere continues
  • Strong migration gain to Cardinia Shire is expected across the 2011-2036 period
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 107 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: 3 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: 36 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: 213 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: 148 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 258 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 402 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: 353 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 552 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 688 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 1,241 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 1,852 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 2,673 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 2,222 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 1,059 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 720 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 1,227 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 1,624 0 2016 to 2021: 165 0 2016 to 2021: 111 0 2016 to 2021: 118 0 2016 to 2021: 215 0 2016 to 2021: 208 0 2016 to 2021: 309 0 2016 to 2021: 426 0 2016 to 2021: 440 0 2016 to 2021: 575 0 2016 to 2021: 939 0 2016 to 2021: 1,510 0 2016 to 2021: 1,817 0 2016 to 2021: 2,406 0 2016 to 2021: 1,899 0 2016 to 2021: 947 0 2016 to 2021: 838 0 2016 to 2021: 1,284 0 2016 to 2021: 1,579 Persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2016: 110 Persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2016: 90 Persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2016: 125 Persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2016: 175 Persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2016: 169 Persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2016: 393 Persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2016: 471 Persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2016: 451 Persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2016: 566 Persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2016: 794 Persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2016: 1,578 Persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2016: 1,667 Persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2016: 1,909 Persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2016: 1,520 Persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2016: 641 Persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2016: 843 Persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2016: 1,248 Persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2016: 1,405 Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 107 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: 3 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: 36 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: 213 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: 148 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 258 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 402 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: 353 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 552 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 688 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 1,241 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 1,852 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 2,673 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 2,222 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 1,059 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 720 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 1,227 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 1,624 0 2016 to 2021: 165 0 2016 to 2021: 111 0 2016 to 2021: 118 0 2016 to 2021: 215 0 2016 to 2021: 208 0 2016 to 2021: 309 0 2016 to 2021: 426 0 2016 to 2021: 440 0 2016 to 2021: 575 0 2016 to 2021: 939 0 2016 to 2021: 1,510 0 2016 to 2021: 1,817 0 2016 to 2021: 2,406 0 2016 to 2021: 1,899 0 2016 to 2021: 947 0 2016 to 2021: 838 0 2016 to 2021: 1,284 0 2016 to 2021: 1,579 Persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2016: 110 Persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2016: 90 Persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2016: 125 Persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2016: 175 Persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2016: 169 Persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2016: 393 Persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2016: 471 Persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2016: 451 Persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2016: 566 Persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2016: 794 Persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2016: 1,578 Persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2016: 1,667 Persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2016: 1,909 Persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2016: 1,520 Persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2016: 641 Persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2016: 843 Persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2016: 1,248 Persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2016: 1,405
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2016.
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