Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Cardinia Shire

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Cardinia Shire is 25-29 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2021 to 2026.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Cardinia Shire depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Substantial new housing opportunities across the Shire, especially in the growth corridor areas (Pakenham, Officer and to a lesser extent Beaconsfield), which are expected to attract predominantly young couples, young and maturing families
  • The loss of young adults leaving home is expected in many areas, as the trend of young adults leaving rural areas to find employment and education opportunities elsewhere continues
  • Strong migration gain to Cardinia Shire is expected across the 2011-2036 period
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group 0 2021 to 2026: 105 0 2021 to 2026: -61 0 2021 to 2026: 73 0 2021 to 2026: 249 0 2021 to 2026: 192 0 2021 to 2026: 239 0 2021 to 2026: 388 0 2021 to 2026: 353 0 2021 to 2026: 633 0 2021 to 2026: 774 0 2021 to 2026: 1,327 0 2021 to 2026: 1,908 0 2021 to 2026: 2,679 0 2021 to 2026: 2,200 0 2021 to 2026: 1,140 0 2021 to 2026: 843 0 2021 to 2026: 1,319 0 2021 to 2026: 1,700 Persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2021: 147 Persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2021: 34 Persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2021: 144 Persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2021: 235 Persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2021: 226 Persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2021: 306 Persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2021: 355 Persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2021: 410 Persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2021: 543 Persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2021: 1,095 Persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2021: 1,655 Persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2021: 1,932 Persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2021: 2,417 Persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2021: 1,846 Persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2021: 955 Persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2021: 1,031 Persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2021: 1,413 Persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2021: 1,636 0 2021 to 2026: 105 0 2021 to 2026: -61 0 2021 to 2026: 73 0 2021 to 2026: 249 0 2021 to 2026: 192 0 2021 to 2026: 239 0 2021 to 2026: 388 0 2021 to 2026: 353 0 2021 to 2026: 633 0 2021 to 2026: 774 0 2021 to 2026: 1,327 0 2021 to 2026: 1,908 0 2021 to 2026: 2,679 0 2021 to 2026: 2,200 0 2021 to 2026: 1,140 0 2021 to 2026: 843 0 2021 to 2026: 1,319 0 2021 to 2026: 1,700 Persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2021: 147 Persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2021: 34 Persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2021: 144 Persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2021: 235 Persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2021: 226 Persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2021: 306 Persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2021: 355 Persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2021: 410 Persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2021: 543 Persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2021: 1,095 Persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2021: 1,655 Persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2021: 1,932 Persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2021: 2,417 Persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2021: 1,846 Persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2021: 955 Persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2021: 1,031 Persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2021: 1,413 Persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2021: 1,636
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
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