Campbelltown City CouncilPopulation forecast
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Campbelltown City

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Campbelltown City is 20-24 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2021 to 2026.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Campbelltown City depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Principal forecast land assumptions 2011-2026:

  • Over the period 2011-2016: moderate growth owing to new residential development. Overall the City lost younger families (0-4 and 25-34 years), most likely accessing newly built family housing in Camden, the newly developing areas over this period were either in the north of the City, or based around the university. Although there has been an attraction of parent aged adults (25-34 years), this is mostly in couples without children or couples with perhaps one child. The loss of the 0-4 year old group during this period is most likely because families with more than one child are moving to access larger housing in neighbouring growth areas such as Camden. or, alternatively, triggered by the arrival of a first child. This is inidicative of the fact that, during this period, there is either not enough new built housing to meet demand, or neighbouring growth areas are able to compete in terms of affordability and/or cachet
  • A small gain of young adults (18-29 years), attracted by accomodation near to the university and transport
  • Gain of older families (5-17 and 35-49 years, attracted to newly developed housing in East leppington, Glenfield and Bardia.
  • Loss of empty nester households and retirees (50+ years)
Beyond 2016, there is a strong attraction of younger families and young couple without children households (most likely looking to buy family type housing in order to start a family) attracted predominantly to newly developed housing in Menangle park and, later in the forecast period, Gilead. Similarly, the large availability of new housing is likely to result in a net growth in most age groups . although it is expected thart the City will continue to lose empty nester housholds and retirees throuhgout the period (55+ years).
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 190 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: 31 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -219 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -290 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: -185 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: -106 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 76 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: 530 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 890 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 1,356 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 1,659 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 2,102 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 3,873 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 4,047 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 2,273 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 1,283 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 1,465 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 1,694 0 2016 to 2021: 171 0 2016 to 2021: 36 0 2016 to 2021: -126 0 2016 to 2021: -332 0 2016 to 2021: -341 0 2016 to 2021: -370 0 2016 to 2021: -293 0 2016 to 2021: 178 0 2016 to 2021: 554 0 2016 to 2021: 875 0 2016 to 2021: 891 0 2016 to 2021: 1,189 0 2016 to 2021: 2,308 0 2016 to 2021: 2,414 0 2016 to 2021: 1,261 0 2016 to 2021: 639 0 2016 to 2021: 776 0 2016 to 2021: 687 Persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2016: 174 Persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2016: 24 Persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2016: -61 Persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2016: -205 Persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2016: -348 Persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2016: -486 Persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2016: -515 Persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2016: -320 Persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2016: 77 Persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2016: 333 Persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2016: 364 Persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2016: 141 Persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2016: 562 Persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2016: 537 Persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2016: 202 Persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2016: 141 Persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2016: 75 Persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2016: -503 Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 190 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: 31 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -219 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -290 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: -185 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: -106 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 76 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: 530 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 890 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 1,356 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 1,659 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 2,102 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 3,873 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 4,047 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 2,273 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 1,283 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 1,465 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 1,694 0 2016 to 2021: 171 0 2016 to 2021: 36 0 2016 to 2021: -126 0 2016 to 2021: -332 0 2016 to 2021: -341 0 2016 to 2021: -370 0 2016 to 2021: -293 0 2016 to 2021: 178 0 2016 to 2021: 554 0 2016 to 2021: 875 0 2016 to 2021: 891 0 2016 to 2021: 1,189 0 2016 to 2021: 2,308 0 2016 to 2021: 2,414 0 2016 to 2021: 1,261 0 2016 to 2021: 639 0 2016 to 2021: 776 0 2016 to 2021: 687 Persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2016: 174 Persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2016: 24 Persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2016: -61 Persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2016: -205 Persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2016: -348 Persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2016: -486 Persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2016: -515 Persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2016: -320 Persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2016: 77 Persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2016: 333 Persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2016: 364 Persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2016: 141 Persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2016: 562 Persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2016: 537 Persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2016: 202 Persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2016: 141 Persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2016: 75 Persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2016: -503
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, January 2017.
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