City of Greater BendigoPopulation forecast
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City of Greater Bendigo

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in the City of Greater Bendigo is 30-34 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2011 to 2016.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across City of Greater Bendigo depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Substantial new housing opportunities across the City, especially in the growth areas, such as Maiden Gully, Strathfieldsaye, Huntly, White Hills - Jackass Flat, Kangaroo Flat-Big Hill and later in the forecast period - Marong - Rural West, which are expected to attract predominantly young couples looking to purchase their first home and start a family and also young and established families (0-14 and 25-49 years)
  • A minimal net gain of young adults in their late teens and early twenties driven by a portion leaving home (expected in many areas), in search of employment and education opportunities elsewhere though it can be expected that some will remain in the City for education purposes. There is an in-flow of people in the same age cohorts who come to the City of Bendigo from surrounding rural areas for similar education and employment opportunities
  • Strong migration gain to the City from surrounding rural areas, especially in older age groups (mature adults and early retirees aged 55-74 years), possibly downsizing, moving to retirement communities or to be closer to services
  • Net migration gain to the City of Greater Bendigo is expected to increase slightly during the forecast period, predominantly due to the continuing availability of new greenfield housing stock in several small areas
  • Loss of elderly persons aged 75-84 is attributed to movement of frail aged into age care facilities (non-private dwellings) and a decrease of elderly people in those age groups migrating to the City in the later years of the forecast period.
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 26 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: -118 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -124 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -89 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: 14 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 291 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 395 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: 494 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 533 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 549 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 812 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 855 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 365 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 271 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 524 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 384 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 332 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 789 0 2016 to 2021: 40 0 2016 to 2021: -62 0 2016 to 2021: -35 0 2016 to 2021: -3 0 2016 to 2021: 96 0 2016 to 2021: 332 0 2016 to 2021: 335 0 2016 to 2021: 528 0 2016 to 2021: 509 0 2016 to 2021: 589 0 2016 to 2021: 844 0 2016 to 2021: 818 0 2016 to 2021: 269 0 2016 to 2021: 316 0 2016 to 2021: 626 0 2016 to 2021: 543 0 2016 to 2021: 398 0 2016 to 2021: 847 Persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2016: 26 Persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2016: -43 Persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2016: 25 Persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2016: 99 Persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2016: 161 Persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2016: 323 Persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2016: 287 Persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2016: 359 Persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2016: 494 Persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2016: 536 Persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2016: 929 Persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2016: 931 Persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2016: 272 Persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2016: 191 Persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2016: 577 Persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2016: 610 Persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2016: 577 Persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2016: 871 Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 26 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: -118 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -124 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -89 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: 14 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 291 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 395 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: 494 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 533 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 549 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 812 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 855 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 365 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 271 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 524 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 384 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 332 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 789 0 2016 to 2021: 40 0 2016 to 2021: -62 0 2016 to 2021: -35 0 2016 to 2021: -3 0 2016 to 2021: 96 0 2016 to 2021: 332 0 2016 to 2021: 335 0 2016 to 2021: 528 0 2016 to 2021: 509 0 2016 to 2021: 589 0 2016 to 2021: 844 0 2016 to 2021: 818 0 2016 to 2021: 269 0 2016 to 2021: 316 0 2016 to 2021: 626 0 2016 to 2021: 543 0 2016 to 2021: 398 0 2016 to 2021: 847 Persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2016: 26 Persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2016: -43 Persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2016: 25 Persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2016: 99 Persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2016: 161 Persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2016: 323 Persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2016: 287 Persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2016: 359 Persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2016: 494 Persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2016: 536 Persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2016: 929 Persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2016: 931 Persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2016: 272 Persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2016: 191 Persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2016: 577 Persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2016: 610 Persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2016: 577 Persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2016: 871
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, August 2015.
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