Drivers of population change
Blacktown City is a residential, commercial and industrial LGA in south western Sydney between 13 and 23 kilometres south west of the Sydney GPO. The City features a large residential population as well as significant employment areas based around Bankstown Airport, Villawood, Chullora, Revesby and Padstow.
While early development in Bankstown dates from the 1800s, the most significant periods of development have been the 1920s, when more than 22,000 residential lots were released and the immediate post war era, when the City’s population increased by around 10,000 persons per year between 1948 and 1954. The earlier period of development was concentrated in areas around Bankstown and the north of the City. The post war era saw significant development in suburbs such as Padstow, Revesby, Chester Hill and Georges Hall. By the 1970s, the City’s residential spread was about complete. The population of the City has been increasing in recent years, driven by an intensification of existing residential areas, most notably in the Bankstown CBD, and also by an slight increase in the average household size (most probably a combination of rising housing costs meaning young adults stay at home longer, and multi-generational families, with aged parents living with adult children.
The primary housing market role that the City has played in the post war era has been to provide relatively affordable housing for young families. This role continues to some extent, although areas to the west such as Liverpool and Fairfield LGAs have overtaken Bankstown in terms of new dwellings in the last 20-30 years. Relatively high rates of infill development in the City are expected to continue, dominated by growth in the Bankstown CBD, and to a lesser extent in centres such as Yagoona, Sefton, Padstow and Revesby. This is based on large numbers of new medium density dwellings being established in the City, catering for a range of housing types, particularly young adults and couples.
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2016.
Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.
Housing role and function
Bankstown City comprises significant diversity in terms of residential and economic role and function. Bankstown CBD is the most ‘urban’ part of the City and attracts young adults to its higher density residential dwelling stock. Areas such as Panania, Punchbowl, Greenacre and Sefton and Yagoona by contrast have been losing young adults as children leave home to establish households elsewhere. In Greenacre, Sefton and Yagoona, however, this is likely to alter in the future as these areas gain in higher density residential stock and experience a resultant increase in their rental markets. Areas such as Bass Hill and Padstow are expected to experience a net in-migration of all younger age groups owing to recent development, and potential densification. This variety of function and role of the small areas in Bankstown City means that population outcomes differ significantly across the LGA.
There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to twenty years. Large new medium density opportunities have been identified in the Bankstown CBD and as a result, this area will contribute significantly to the City’s population growth over the forecast period. Greenacre-Mount Lewis-Chullora, Padstow-Padstow Heights, Yagoona, Bass Hill-Lansdowne and Panania-East Hills are also expected to add significant numbers of dwellings over the forecast period. Additional housing supply has also been created owing to the relaxation of planning regulations allowing secondary dwellings, or “granny flats” with the result that, over recent years, there has been a significant increase in this type of development within older established areas with relatively large lot sizes. Consequently, all areas are expected to increase in population to some extent, driven by both infill and site-specific residential development.