How did we do the forecasts?
What are the components of population change?
At the small area level, the primary drivers of population change are the age structure of the existing population, the housing markets attracted to and away from an area and their associated demographic characteristics (fertility patterns, household types etc.) and the supply of residential land (or potential for rezoning of land), which impacts on the dwelling stock of the area.
The addition of dwellings is the major driver of population growth, providing opportunities for new households (such as young people leaving the family home and divorces) or households relocating from other areas.
Current age structure
The age structure of the local population impacts on the Southern Grampians Shire household types and size, the likelihood of the local population having children and to die, as well as the propensity for people to move. Age specific propensities for a population to have children or die are applied to each small area's base population. An older population will have fewer births, more deaths, while a younger population will have vice versa.
Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having very low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all. This can have a large impact on the population profile with comparatively fewer children than in previous periods.
Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men gaining on women's greater life chances.
The sorts of households that people live in and changing preferences over time affects the way in which a population changes. As people grow from children to adults and into old age, they change the sorts of households that they live in. The traditional path has been to start as a child in a family household, move into a group or lone person household as a youth, becoming a part of a couple relationship within 5-10 years. Rearing of children is followed by an ‘empty-nester’ period and ultimately being a lone person, as partners die.
Capturing the changes that people make by age through their life is a key driver and the way in which this is changing, with a greater preference to live alone or as a couple without children.
Migration is one of the most important components of population change. While births and deaths are relatively easy to predict due to reliable age specific behaviour, migration is volatile, often changing due to housing market preferences, economic opportunities and changing household circumstances. Migration patterns vary across Australia and change across time, but most moves tend to be short and incremental in nature. Regional areas have larger moves due to the distances between towns and cities, where people often move for economic reasons, mainly the availability of employment or education and training opportunities.
The most mobile age groups in the population are the young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. It is for this reason that young people often move the greatest distances and sometimes move against pre-established patterns. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation if appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.